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Apple's Mystery Transition: Change We Can Believe In
Posted 08/06/2008 at 4:57:00am | by Michael Simon

transitions

Like any company that has kept a small, loyal customer base rabidly interested in its products for more than 30 years, Apple has mastered the art of reinvention. The transformation from a 1Mhz motherboard manufacturer to the biggest purveyor of digital music has been gradual and deliberate, and Apple’s path has been peppered with forks, detours and bold turns that have kept Cupertino on the map.

And now, it seems we’re on the precipice of another “product transition” that will apparently put a significant dent in Apple’s third-quarter gross margins (how much money it makes from each sale). The less-than-characteristic divulgement set off a characteristic flurry of speculation surrounding the fabled Tablet Mac, with rumor sites chiming in with specs and investors betting on another must-have holiday gadget.

With Apple, we never know too much, but we do know an announcement is coming sometime within the next 60 days; and if history is any indictor, we all should be paying attention:

Mac

Way back before many iPod owners were even born, Apple made Apple computers — that is, Apple I, Apple II, Apple III, etc. It wasn’t until 1984, nearly eight years after selling its first PC, when the world was introduced to the Macintosh, the computer that would set the course for the next 24 years (and counting). Apple famously teased its new computer with a 60-second Super Bowl spot directed by Ridley Scott — a bit more ostentatious than July 21's Webcast — launched its signature machine two days later, and never looked back.

Little did we know that the Mac would grow and evolve as much as Apple itself, with titanium-dipped portables, blueberry-flavored desktops, sunflower-inspired works of art, and sleek, refined towers. Through every transition, the Mac has retained its trademark style and class, and we’re sure it’ll leave us breathless this time, too.

iPod

On Oct. 23, 2001, Steve Jobs took the stage at Apple’s headquarters with a new gadget tucked away in his pocket that immediately made headlines. Built exclusively for the Mac, the 1,000-song iPod seemed doomed to fail in a fledgling market cluttered with players no one really wanted.

What we didn’t know was that Steve had no intention of letting iPod languish as a high-priced niche product. Within two years, millions of iPod users were downloading and transferring songs using the iTunes Music Store, and Apple even let Windows users in on the action as it carefully crafted a “halo” of support.

Nearly seven years later, the iPod represents the single greatest gamble in Apple’s history — and while it may not be the star, we’re betting it plays a significant role in this transition.

OS X

After years of anticipation and several false-starts, a DVD Player-less, bug-plagued version of OS X hit shelves on March 24, 2001, to much fanfare. The first clang in Classic’s eventual death knell, Aqua and Cocoa ushered in a grown-up, sleek desktop far beyond anything Windows and Linux had to offer, bugs and all.

It was hard to see then, but with OS X 10.0 Cheetah, Apple set the stage for the ice book, aluminum PowerBook, sunflower iMac, iPhone, Expose, Dashboard, Time Machine — and whatever Steve has up his sleeve this time.

PowerPC/Intel

Much like a car’s engine, a computer — even a Mac — is nothing without its processor. Back in the early 90s, in an effort to stem the migration to Windows, Apple teamed with IBM and Motorola on a brand new processor architecture that promised higher yields, better performance and more versatility than Intel’s offerings.

For the most part, the partnership delivered, but despite bake-offs and megahertz myths, PowerPC handcuffed the Mac for more than a decade, as the vast majority of consumers chose more mainstream boxes with Intel inside. While everyone’s attention was focused on the iPod, however, Apple pulled the most shocking transition of all and dumped PowerPC, not two years after shipping its heralded Power Mac G5.

Apple’s ingenuity made the whole Intel shift seem seamless, and its numbers have been increasing ever since. And whatever the upcoming transition is, we think it’ll keep up that trend.


Steve Jobs

The greatest mind in the history of Silicon Valley shouldn’t need an adjustment period, but when you return to the company you helped found after all but getting the pink slip some 10 years earlier, it’s a necessary evil — especially when said company is in shambles. When Steve returned to Apple in 1996, he immediately made his presence known as “iCEO,” killing the Newton, striking a browser deal with Microsoft, and shifting the company in a decidedly consumer direction, with the iMac, iPod, iTunes, iBook and iPhone all coming under his watchful eye.

And, of course, this year’s upcoming, “one more thing.”

What transition does Steve and Apple have up its sleeve? Share your theories below. 

COMMENTS
avatarSteve Jobs

The transition is that steve jobs is going to retire and leave apple so the transition must start to other people.

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avatarActually...

That's not a bad guess. I mean, that certainly would immediately affect Apple's bottom line.

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avatarBlu-Ray

What about a transition to Blu-Ray drives across entire line? - Pros, iMacs, Macbooks, and MacMini. Hmm... why not just transition both the AppleTV and MacMini products into a single digital hub capable of playing Blu-Ray movies to your HDTV (and streaming it to your MacBook Air), renting/purchasing movies/music/apps from iTunes, YouTubing, catching up on MobileMe email, and play any video game written for PC/MAC via the touchscreen game controller/remote with built-in accelerometers - i.e., the iPhone/iPod touch? Yeah, that's the ticket!! and we'll call it the "iDream On"!

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avatarClothes???

I believe that the next major transition for Apple and Steve Jobs will be his wardrobe. Maybe for something more 21st century! No but seriously, we all know that the release of the iPhone will engender some breaking new technology also incorporating their present technology (and obviously make it better). But if they want to continue making majors steps in this world of technology, they will have to start doing their own chip-set. As MacRumors has stated, Apple will not take the full new Intel Nehalem chipset (which includes the new industry standard wireless internet connection (WiMax) and GPU). So that means they will probably either work hand-in-hand with Intel to develop an Apple exclusive chipset or Apple will be starting to make their own ones. This would mean 110% compatibility and performance enhancement. And since the new Mac OS X.6 will be tailor made for multi-core CPUs and GPUs, it would only make sense for Apple to make such a transition. Also, about the new rumors about the Apple tablet and the sub-computers, etc... Apple is the only software/hardware company able to do such a thing with an amazing success. The only things they are waiting for to release such an innovative gadget is probably their new OS due for 2009. In theory, this OS will enable you current computer to be faster without changing anything for the OS by only enabling the GPU to help in normal CPU tasks, therefore reducing the power consumption and DRAMATICALLY boots processing performances. So by waiting for this dramatic technology to be developed, Apple with then release their ultra-portable slash ultra-powerful slash ultra-anything you can think of Apple does today and make it outperform anything out there without having to scale their package to fit more stuff. You know, the reason why the Windows based computers are as fast on paper as Apple computers, but they really are not fast when you work with them, is because of the OS' architecture. You can put as much firepower as you want under the bonnet of you computer, but if you don't have the OS to support all of it (or efficiently support it), it is a lost of power and efficiency. Hence the very poor, not so small and innovative wanna be ultra-portable, fast, cheap computers. Just Imagine this. In less than one year, you will have an iMac, Mac Pro, MacBook, MacBook Pro, Air, tablet, iphone, ipod (and whatever they will come out with) that will run twice as fast and efficiently than what we have now with OS X.5 just because of a few lines of code more. And to quote Steve Jobs : "Isn't that amazing huh?"

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avatarIt amuses me to see the

It amuses me to see the comments above actually naming technologies and concepts that Apple "will" or "should" transition to (esp the blah above about cores, power consumption, etc).

 

Nobody saw the iPod coming. Nobody saw the Intel switch coming. Nobody saw the NeXT buyout coming. Nobody saw the Mac itself coming. You will not see the next big one coming.

 

By all means speculate, but just be aware that no matter what you come up with, you're already wrong.

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