The time has come for Apple to release a smaller iPad

Brace yourselves, because it’s coming. The rumors of a smaller iPad have swirled since, well, the first iPad came along, and it no longer seems to be a question of if we’ll see one, but when. There’s no doubt that a market exists for a junior iPad; Amazon and Google have proven it with their own pint-sized tablets. And judging by past Apple patterns, a mini iPad makes sense in Apple’s timeline. While nobody knows exactly what the device will look like, what its tech specs will be, or what it will cost, one thing seems sure: Apple will release a smaller iPad, and here at Mac|Life, we think it’s a smart move.

Size Matters

During Apple’s Q4 2010 results conference call, Steve Jobs famously ranted that 7-inch tablets should include “sandpaper so that the user can sand down their fingers to around one-quarter of their present size.” Based on Apple’s “extensive user testing on touch interfaces over many years,” Jobs was certain that a great tablet had to be at least 10 inches. Was he wrong, or was this simply a case of Steve being Steve? In April 2004 he also mocked the idea of watching videos on an iPod, then introduced the fifth-gen iPod with video just over a year later.

In this case, Apple’s user testing and touch interface experience can actually support the iPad Mini’s rumored 7.85-inch form factor. Apple’s Human Interface Guidelines recommend that iOS developers give users a target space of 44 points (or larger) to tap. On non-Retina devices, 1 “point” equals 1 pixel, and on Retina displays 1 point is 2 pixels wide and 2 pixels high, or a 4-pixel square. If the iPad Mini screen is 7.85 inches diagonally, using the same 1024x768 resolution as the original iPad, that works out to 163 pixels per inch. Surprise--that’s the same pixel density as the pre-Retina iPhones. (In fact, Apple is expected to use the same type of screens for the iPad Mini that it uses for the iPhone 3GS.) So a 44-point button would be the same size on the iPad Mini as it is on the iPhone. Why stick with the 1024x768 resolution? Easy: so existing iPad apps can run on the iPad Mini without developers having to update them.

Of course, these numbers are just numbers, and it’s hard to really understand what iPad apps would look like on a 7.85-inch screen just by reading some text. Seeing is believing, so we were excited when John Gruber of Daring Fireball linked to http://seveneightyfive.fscked.com, by The Unofficial Apple Weblog’s Richard Gaywood. Gaywood provides screenshots of current iPad applications that have been shrunk by 19 percent, so when you load the images on a full-size iPad, they’re exactly 7.85 inches diagonally, and you can “test tap” them for yourself.

While the smaller iPad may compete with Kindle Fire and Nexus 7 in price, keep in mind that its rumored 7.85-inch screen is a good bit larger.

Market Forces

Apple currently dominates the tablet market—Strategy Analytics cites a 68 percent global market share--and the iPad has made such a dent in our lives that it’s easy to forget how relatively young this market is. But just because no one’s caught the iPad yet doesn’t mean it can’t happen.

Apple doesn’t traditionally move into new tech areas just to take out their competition. Since the late ’90s return of Steve Jobs, Apple has pared down its product line to focus on its strengths: Mac desktop and laptop, then iPod, iPhone, and iPad. Apple’s R&D department almost certainly researches new, promising markets, but the company doesn’t enter one of them until it has just the right product. For example, Apple saw the netbook as a poor excuse for a laptop, so they created what became the new notebook standard, the MacBook Air, which was such a hit that the PC market had to respond with the lookalike ultrabooks.

Recently, both Microsoft and Google have challenged Apple by introducing tablets, even though neither company is known for producing integrated hardware-and-software devices like Apple does. It seems they went outside of their normal playbooks in order to demonstrate to third-party hardware developers how to compete with the dominant iPad.

The 10-inch Microsoft Surface tablet will run Windows 8 and come in two models: a Tegra 3-powered version priced competitively with the iPad and other 10-inch tablets, and an Intel model that will be priced more like an ultrabook or MacBook Air. (The exact prices and release dates had not been confirmed at press time.) And Google introduced and quickly started shipping its Nexus 7, a 7-inch tablet running Android 4.1 that goes for $199 with 8GB of storage, and $249 for 16GB of storage. The Kindle Fire, a 7-inch tablet sold by Amazon that runs a locked-down version of Android, also sells for $199, and is rumored to have an update on the horizon, perhaps by the time you read this. Amazon has more experience selling digital content directly to consumers than either Google or Microsoft, and the Kindle Fire has been hailed as a success, even though Amazon refuses to reveal exact sales figures.

Many consumers have shown they are willing to sacrifice the full iPad experience for a smaller, less expensive tablet, and Apple can’t afford to let that happen. When Apple sells Macs they’re only selling hardware, but with iPads, they’re selling the entire ecosystem, including a cut of all apps and content. And once you’re in that ecosystem, Apple thinks you’ll be more likely to get an iPhone, an Apple TV, and even a Mac--together, “they just work!” Apple can’t let the mini-tablet market go untouched. 

The iPod Pattern

Apple understands that once you have a winning product, spinning off new versions at different price points is the name of the game. The company has been evolving the iPod line for 10 years, gradually filling in the lower price points with the iPod mini, the iPod nano, and the iPod shuffle. The iPhone 4S is obviously Apple’s flagship phone, but the iPhone 4 and even the iPhone 3GS have been kept around as lower-priced entry points to the Apple ecosystem. With just the new iPad and iPad 2 currently on sale, the iPad line definitely has room for a low-cost entry-level device.

Of course, some sacrifices will need to be made to reach the millions of potential new customers that Apple will target with the iPad Mini. For example, even though Retina displays have become standard on Apple’s new mobile devices--and have even started to show up in Apple laptops--we don’t expect such a luxury to appear in an especially cost-conscious product. But once Apple has established its place in the 7-inch tablet space, the company is sure to introduce a Retina upgrade in a year or two, just like it did with the iPhone, iPod touch, and iPad. The smaller size of the device might keep it from being as robust a content editor as the bigger iPad, but it would be just the right size for media, which really pops on a Retina display, and such a travel-friendly device will be great for watching movies, reading books, and sharing photos.

But for now, simply getting to the 7-inch market--assuming Apple can come close to the low $200 price tags of the Nexus 7 and Kindle Fire--will help the iPad brand stay first in consumers’ minds, keeping it synonymous with the word “tablet.” If the iPad Mini costs about the same as the top 7-inch tablets, who wouldn’t choose the market-leading brand?

The Bottom Line

Apple needs to release an iPad Mini to keep the competition from gaining ground in such an important, quickly growing market. However, it’s still questionable what kind of niche a product like this will find, a product that is somewhat awkwardly wedged between the ultra-portable iPhone/iPod touch and the original, still-quite-portable iPad. As Apple rolled out less-expensive versions of the iPod, the company differentiated the devices by cleverly identifying them with specific uses or lifestyles: the nano was for running, the shuffle was a fashion accessory, and so on. The key reason for the iPad Mini to exist seems to be affordability, and with a lower price comes greater accessibility. This tablet could greatly accelerate Apple’s goal of getting iPads into classrooms, would offer aspiring app developers and ebook authors low-cost testing devices, and the extra portability could make it the perfect universal remote for the Apple TV media streamer or the heavily rumored Apple TV set. It will be very interesting to see which uses Apple spotlights when the device is officially unveiled. Our Apple-senses say we won’t have to wait much longer.