Analyst Predicts Successful iPad Launch Will Push Apple Stock Past $300
Posted 04/05/2010 at 5:58am
| by J.R. Bookwalter
(Image courtesy of AppleInsider)By all accounts, Apple had a pretty good weekend with their iPad launch, and the often-skeptical analysts seem to agree.
AppleInsider has a full recap of the post-launch iPad predictions from analysts, with Mark Moskowitz of J.P. Morgan Research issuing a note to investors on Monday that is predicting sales of the iPad will push Apple’s stock as high as $305 -- up from his December, 2010 price target of a mere $240.
“Currently, we estimate the iPad to exhibit a slightly lower unit sales trajectory compared to that of the first generation iPhone, but we acknowledge this gap could change as iPad volumes are reported in coming quarters,” Moskowitz writes. “We expect the iPad to benefit from Apple’s content ecosystem and the favorable user experiences of the iPhone and iPod touch.”
J.P. Morgan expects Apple’s stock to fly on the basis of their forecast of 4.805 million iPad shipments in the first 12 months, compared with 5.047 million for the iPhone. That includes 825,000 iPad shipments in the June quarter, which will expand to 1.23 million in the September quarter.
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster also had a busy weekend at his crystal ball, aided by a survey of 448 iPad buyers to help understand the early user base and how they’ll be using the device.
Like the original iPhone in 2007, 74 percent of those launch day iPad buyers are also Mac users. Another 66 percent also own an iPhone, and a full 99 percent of those plan to use their handset alongside their new iPad. Only 13 percent of those surveyed owned an Amazon Kindle, but more than half of those planned to replace their Kindle with the iPad. Finally, the early buyers appear to have been sold on the iPad from the get-go, with 78 percent saying they didn’t consider another device when making their purchase. Only 10 percent considered a Kindle, while six percent did the same for a netbook.
While Munster predicts that Apple moved between 600,000 and 700,000 iPads in the first 24 hours, some of his peers were less bullish. Analyst Charlie Wolf at Needham & Company expects that Cupertino moved only 300,000 units, although he hedges his bets by estimating the number could reach as high as 500,000 depending on the initial production run.
"The iPad launch says less about the ultimate success of the iPad and more about the prominence of Apple in our culture," Wolf writes. "But the iPad itself is stunning. Once again, Apple has redefined a category called the tablet. The iPad is a device nobody needs but most everybody wants based on the continuing long lines at the Fifth Avenue Store and the ‘wow’ reactions of customers on their first encounter with the device."