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#1 2006-07-29 3:57 am
Consequences of a cease-fire
Hypothetical.
Tomorrow, Hezbollah returns the kidnapped soldiers and stops firing on Israel.
Or tomorrow, Israel and Hezbollah respect the UN request for a 48 hour cease fire, and neither start up again afterwards.
Whatever the scenario, let's pretend there is a cease fire w/o Israel taking out Hezbollah or destroying their arsenal.
What will the results be?
Would it just be a delay, with more violence in the future, or is there really a way to peacefully prevent the two from going at each other again?
Is the Lebonese army, with international help, capable of preventing Hezbollah from stocking arms for a future conflict? If not, are there any other means by which to stop Hezbollah from stocking up arms for another conflict?
Israel has a piece of land that the UN says belongs to Syria but that Lebanon has always claimed.
If Israel gives that land to Lebanon, as some are suggesting they should in the effort to gain peace, will it really help at all?
I think the only path to peace is for Iran and Syria to lose their radically anti-Israeli attitude, which would require government changes in both countries, government changes that probably aren't going to happen w/o a level of bloodshed to make the bloodshed in Iraq look like a cat scratch. The propoganda that is on the Hezbollah sponsored television is absolutely apauling - they have been showing some of it on foxnews, and it is some pretty hardcore anti-Israeli and anti-American propoganda.
Even if Israel destroys Hezbollah, Iran and Syria will just support the next anti-Israel militant group.
But what do you think? Is there another way?
In her right hand Jenny held the Bible of her mother
Jenny had a pistol in the other
-- Steve Taylor
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#2 2006-07-29 4:22 am
- Tetrachloride
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Re: Consequences of a cease-fire
Another way to peace ? From the bottom up. One to one cultural exchange.
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#3 2006-07-29 4:28 am
Re: Consequences of a cease-fire
Tetrachloride wrote:
Another way to peace ? From the bottom up. One to one cultural exchange.
What is a "one to one cultural exchange"?
I'm not familiar with that term.
In her right hand Jenny held the Bible of her mother
Jenny had a pistol in the other
-- Steve Taylor
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#4 2006-07-29 5:29 am
- Zetetic Apparatchik
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Re: Consequences of a cease-fire
resedit wrote:
Is the Lebonese army, with international help, capable of preventing Hezbollah from stocking arms for a future conflict?
It's worth noting that at this point Lebanon was planning on bringing a various foriegn military advisers (British and French, amongst others) to try and get some advice about upgrading their military capacity. It's possible that both Hezbollah (due to the only presence being a weak UNIFIL) and Israel (due to Lebanon's almost complete lack of anti-air) were trying to get in before Lebanon really re-armed.
I believe what Tetrachloride is referring to is the need to show Lebanese and Palestinian children that Israeli children are almost exactly the same as them and vica-versa. There's some argument that this helped in Northern Ireland and in a similar way to breaking down segregation I guess. I'm sure that even school exchanges would help but how much and how easy it would be to setup in a meaningful fashion, I'm not sure.
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Protest ist, wenn ich sage, das und das paßt mir nicht. Widerstand ist, wenn ich dafür sorge, daß das, was mir nicht paßt, nicht länger geschieht.
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#5 2006-07-29 5:48 am
Re: Consequences of a cease-fire
If we didn't need oil, we wouldn't have to care.
It is an odd thing, but every one who disappears is said to be seen at San Francisco. It must be a delightful city, and possess all the attractions of the next world.
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#6 2006-07-29 7:19 am
Re: Consequences of a cease-fire
robco wrote:
If we didn't need oil, we wouldn't have to care.
I don't think either country produces much oil.
In her right hand Jenny held the Bible of her mother
Jenny had a pistol in the other
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#7 2006-07-29 7:21 am
Re: Consequences of a cease-fire
Zetetic Apparatchik wrote:
I believe what Tetrachloride is referring to is the need to show Lebanese and Palestinian children that Israeli children are almost exactly the same as them and vica-versa. There's some argument that this helped in Northern Ireland and in a similar way to breaking down segregation I guess. I'm sure that even school exchanges would help but how much and how easy it would be to setup in a meaningful fashion, I'm not sure.
There aren't that many jews in Lebanon, and Hezbollah is afaik not palestinian, though they are arab.
In her right hand Jenny held the Bible of her mother
Jenny had a pistol in the other
-- Steve Taylor
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#8 2006-07-29 8:02 am
- Zetetic Apparatchik
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Re: Consequences of a cease-fire
I meant Lebanese children and Palestinian children not children who are both Lebanese and Palestinian. I don't really think it's practical (as you note, it'd have to be cross-border) but it's a nice idea.
Lebanon produces an estimated 0 barrels of oil per day and Israel produces an estimated 2,740 barrels per day. Neither export any oil worth speaking of. That's exactly why no one seems to really care (well not enough to have actually tried to stop it).
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Protest ist, wenn ich sage, das und das paßt mir nicht. Widerstand ist, wenn ich dafür sorge, daß das, was mir nicht paßt, nicht länger geschieht.
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#9 2006-07-29 8:14 am
Re: Consequences of a cease-fire
resedit wrote:
But what do you think? Is there another way?
Armageddon? The possibilities are strong.
Cheers,
ptervin...the sandwich man
<-- Look, I can fly!
Last edited by ptervin (2006-07-29 8:17 am)
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#10 2006-07-29 8:41 am
Re: Consequences of a cease-fire
Zetetic Apparatchik wrote:
I meant Lebanese children and Palestinian children not children who are both Lebanese and Palestinian. I don't really think it's practical (as you note, it'd have to be cross-border) but it's a nice idea.
A first step would be to stop the intentional racist indoctrination that happens.
Even though Saudi is fairly moderate as a government to Israel, my understanding is that they (the members of the royal family, not the government per se) fund a lot of the radical islam anti-semite indoctrination material. Not just them, of course, but since they are a rather influential allie of ours, perhaps Condi or whoever needs to put pressure on them to bring that to a stop.
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#11 2006-07-29 12:06 pm
- bedstuy
- Archimandrite, Eastern Elite
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#12 2006-07-29 3:03 pm
- blank kludge
- 20 Minutes Into teh Future
- From: Hal9k --> Font/DA Mover
- Registered: 2006-02-21
- Posts: 525
Re: Consequences of a cease-fire
Have not viewed others here.
Just seems reasonable to me that the DIRECT CONSEQUENCES of a cease-fire would be LESS DEATH and destruction. Hence, lives saved.
The DIRECT CONSEQUENCES of no cease-fire would seem to be the OPPOSITE. That is, MORE DEATH and destruction.
Maybe I'm being 'quain't' [sick][sic].
(some combo of 'quiet' / 'quite' / 'quaint' and 'ain't')
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Blanks are people who have either fallen off the information nets, or taken themselves off deliberately. Usually known and addressed by their first names with "Blank" as a title - Blank Reg, Blank Bruno, and Blank Dom(inique) are three we get to know well.
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#13 2006-07-29 3:21 pm
Re: Consequences of a cease-fire
blank kludge wrote:
Have not viewed others here.
Just seems reasonable to me that the DIRECT CONSEQUENCES of a cease-fire would be LESS DEATH and destruction. Hence, lives saved.
Does it save lives - or does it just delay it until Hezbollah is able to obtain a quantity of arms that can go quite a bit further than their old tech rockets?
I think the latter.
As long as Hezbollah exists, they will work towards the destruction of Israel - that is why they are there.
If you have a cancer, they try to remove it - which includes removal of non cancerous flesh.
If you don't remove it, your entire body is in danger.
Last edited by resedit (2006-07-29 3:22 pm)
In her right hand Jenny held the Bible of her mother
Jenny had a pistol in the other
-- Steve Taylor
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#14 2006-07-29 3:36 pm
- Zetetic Apparatchik
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Re: Consequences of a cease-fire
I'm just worried that we're going to shy away from any intervention until we have a Srebrenica equivalent. Be nice to learn, that's all.
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Protest ist, wenn ich sage, das und das paßt mir nicht. Widerstand ist, wenn ich dafür sorge, daß das, was mir nicht paßt, nicht länger geschieht.
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#15 2006-07-29 6:48 pm
- blank kludge
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Re: Consequences of a cease-fire
smurf me.
"Does it save lives?"
If you wake up tomorrow alive, because no bombs are dropping and no bullets are flying...THEN HELL YES IT SAVES LIVES.
Unless the plan is to eradicate, from the start.
2.3 - What are "Blanks"?
Blanks are people who have either fallen off the information nets, or taken themselves off deliberately. Usually known and addressed by their first names with "Blank" as a title - Blank Reg, Blank Bruno, and Blank Dom(inique) are three we get to know well.
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#16 2006-07-29 7:09 pm
- gas huffer
- hegelian diuretic
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Re: Consequences of a cease-fire
Hezzbollah must now be disarmed, and submit itself to the Lebanese Gov't.
PERIOD
"What's your favorite beer, son?"
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#17 2006-07-29 7:11 pm
- Tallgeese
- Sternly Advising
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- Posts: 34114
Re: Consequences of a cease-fire
blank kludge wrote:
smurf me.
"Does it save lives?"
If you wake up tomorrow alive, because no bombs are dropping and no bullets are flying...THEN HELL YES IT SAVES LIVES.
Unless the plan is to eradicate, from the start.
It saves particular live, but would a temporary (they're all temporary in the long run) cease fire at this time have a net effect of saving lives?
I still believe in liberalism today as much as I ever did, but, oh, there was a happy time when I believed in liberals.
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