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#1 2008-07-17 11:47 am

Ribtorus
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Registered: 2002-07-11
Posts: 13272

Talking to Iranians

The guardian's reporting a story run earlier elswhere that America may be looking to set up more meaningful diplomatic relations with Teheran.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jul/17/usa.iran

The Guardian has learned that an announcement will be made in the next month to establish a US interests section - a halfway house to setting up a full embassy. The move will see US diplomats stationed in the country.

The news of the shift by Bush who has pursued a hawkish approach to Iran throughout his tenure comes at a critical time in US-Iranian relations. After weeks that have seen tensions rise with Israel conducting war games and Tehran carrying out long-range missile tests, a thaw appears to be under way.

The White House announced yesterday that William Burns, a senior state department official, is to be sent to Switzerland on Saturday to hear Tehran's response to a European offer aimed at resolving the nuclear standoff.

It's hard for me to think the two sides could do much else. As long as Iraq is central to American mid east plans, Iran must be dealt with in a way that doesn't jeopardise America's investment in Iraq.

The "appeasement" nonesense can be swept aside because the  the White House, the State Department and the Pentagon have pretty much lost the war hawks by now. They matter so much less at this stage. If the hawks still have some fight, it'll be between Cheney/Lieberman vs Rice/Gates. Lieberman's the only one who'll have any legs after the election, but he needs McCain by then, and McCain will be yesterday's man come November. The current Iranian president's term will also be nearing its end, so face saving can be little more than a matter of timing.

Mightn't it be ironic that a couple of proven incompetents like Bush and Rice might accomplish a real diplomatic feat with a nation that actually matters.
It's hardly a done deal though. So many possibilities for wrenching the works by all sides.

Last edited by Ribtorus (2008-07-17 12:26 pm)


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#2 2008-07-17 11:53 am

JakeTheTall
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From: In Permanent Opposition
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Re: Talking to Iranians

I love it when the absurd main message of the Republican Presidential campaign ends up being the opposite what the Bush Administration does.


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#3 2008-07-17 12:07 pm

Ribtorus
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Re: Talking to Iranians

JakeTheTall wrote:

I love it when the absurd main message of the Republican Presidential campaign ends up being the opposite what the Bush Administration does.

There's huge divides in the right; the neo-cons and the war hawks and the Republicans and the Likudites and the "liberal" hawks etc etc. Their political fortunes depend not just on Iraq but on Afghanistan and beyond. I believe the pentagon put the brakes on a military solution for the "and beyond" part. Without that, the unilateralists might as well pack up and go home. they need an army to pursue their policies, and they don't have one.

Recently, secretary Gates said as much when he declared that the State Department needs to get more involved in the events and not leave things to the pentagon. That's a slap down of the neo-con's ambitions right there. He's saying it's over. He may have made his remarks with Rice's ambitions in mind. It's reported she has taken some wind from Cheney's sails.


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#4 2008-07-17 12:09 pm

Ribtorus
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Re: Talking to Iranians

I think there's a good chance that O'Bama will at least consider retaining Gates in the new administration. Gates may well have had enough though.


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#5 2008-07-17 12:16 pm

user
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From: I'm not getting you down, am I
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Re: Talking to Iranians

My reaction was, oh smurf, now they're going to pretend that was the plan all along and try to attack the democrats with it.


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#6 2008-07-17 12:25 pm

Ribtorus
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Registered: 2002-07-11
Posts: 13272

Re: Talking to Iranians

user wrote:

My reaction was, oh smurf, now they're going to pretend that was the plan all along and try to attack the democrats with it.

I'm sure that there are long standing plans in the State Department to set up relations with Iran, just as there are long standing plans in the Pentagon to attack Iran. But we know the Iranians were rebuffed by the Bush administration for formal diplomatic ties. I think the unilateralists were feeling pretty good about themselves at that time.  Talking to Iran, let alone formal relations, is clearly not part of the plans for some of the groups that were pro war, but not all.


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#7 2008-07-17 12:26 pm

ShnickyShnack
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From: Amidst a superiority complex
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Re: Talking to Iranians

I think it's so funny that this comes so quickly on the heels of the Bushian "talk = appeasement" speech in Israel.

Reality's a bitch, don't you know. A stubborn, stubborn bitch.


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#8 2008-07-17 12:28 pm

Ribtorus
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Registered: 2002-07-11
Posts: 13272

Re: Talking to Iranians

I don't think the grown ups have been listening to Bush for quite some time.


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#9 2008-07-17 12:29 pm

Tallgeese
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From: Fake America
Registered: 2000-10-17
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Re: Talking to Iranians

ShnickyShnack wrote:

I think it's so funny that this comes so quickly on the heels of the Bushian "talk = appeasement" speech in Israel.

Reality's a bitch, don't you know. A stubborn, stubborn bitch.

But this is different.


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#10 2008-07-17 12:30 pm

JakeTheTall
Cargo Cultist
From: In Permanent Opposition
Registered: 2003-03-13
Posts: 7900

Re: Talking to Iranians

Ribtorus wrote:

JakeTheTall wrote:

I love it when the absurd main message of the Republican Presidential campaign ends up being the opposite what the Bush Administration does.

There's huge divides in the right; the neo-cons and the war hawks and the Republicans and the Likudites and the "liberal" hawks etc etc. Their political fortunes depend not just on Iraq but on Afghanistan and beyond. I believe the pentagon put the brakes on a military solution for the "and beyond" part. Without that, the unilateralists might as well pack up and go home. they need an army to pursue their policies, and they don't have one.

Recently, secretary Gates said as much when he declared that the State Department needs to get more involved in the events and not leave things to the pentagon. That's a slap down of the neo-con's ambitions right there. He's saying it's over. He may have made his remarks with Rice's ambitions in mind. It's reported she has taken some wind from Cheney's sails.

Yeah, your last sentence is part of my wondering....can Sec Gates and Sec Rice counter the Vice President ?  He used to have enough pull to marginalize Sec Rice.  And she seems to be plenty hawkish.

shrug  5 more months...


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#11 2008-07-17 12:30 pm

Ribtorus
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Posts: 13272

Re: Talking to Iranians

But this report may be a bit over zealous. It may just be little more than the ongoing regular planning that any State Department would do as a matter of course. It doesn't mean it will make its way into actual policy.

Personally I think it has to, but it's not a given that it will be the Bush admin which will make it so.


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#12 2008-07-17 12:37 pm

user
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Re: Talking to Iranians

The news item I heard on it this morning is that they are actually only talking about an office in an existing embassy of a country such as Pakistan - primarily to give American citizens some recourse when they are in-country.


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#13 2008-07-17 12:40 pm

Ribtorus
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Registered: 2002-07-11
Posts: 13272

Re: Talking to Iranians

JakeTheTall wrote:

Ribtorus wrote:

JakeTheTall wrote:

I love it when the absurd main message of the Republican Presidential campaign ends up being the opposite what the Bush Administration does.

There's huge divides in the right; the neo-cons and the war hawks and the Republicans and the Likudites and the "liberal" hawks etc etc. Their political fortunes depend not just on Iraq but on Afghanistan and beyond. I believe the pentagon put the brakes on a military solution for the "and beyond" part. Without that, the unilateralists might as well pack up and go home. they need an army to pursue their policies, and they don't have one.

Recently, secretary Gates said as much when he declared that the State Department needs to get more involved in the events and not leave things to the pentagon. That's a slap down of the neo-con's ambitions right there. He's saying it's over. He may have made his remarks with Rice's ambitions in mind. It's reported she has taken some wind from Cheney's sails.

Yeah, your last sentence is part of my wondering....can Sec Gates and Sec Rice counter the Vice President ?  He used to have enough pull to marginalize Sec Rice.  And she seems to be plenty hawkish.

shrug  5 more months...

I'm thinking Cheney has other things on his mind. If he and his followers don't have the Pentagon's ear, where does that leave him?


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#14 2008-07-17 12:41 pm

sturner
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Re: Talking to Iranians

Well, there's still Afganistan, which we seem to be marking for priority in reinforcements and material.


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#15 2008-07-17 1:57 pm

user
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From: I'm not getting you down, am I
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Posts: 14576

Re: Talking to Iranians

Cheney's too busy getting his plans set for moving into his Dubai rotating tower flat.

The real estate market is weak, making selling off his US mansions a real bitch.


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Unless you become as little children, there's no way you will believe this crap.

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#16 2008-07-17 2:42 pm

ShnickyShnack
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From: Amidst a superiority complex
Registered: 2001-05-25
Posts: 40399

Re: Talking to Iranians

sturner wrote:

Well, there's still Afganistan, which we seem to be marking for priority in reinforcements and material.

And it only took seven years or so.


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#17 2008-07-17 2:48 pm

sturner
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Moderator
From: Carrollton, TX USA
Registered: 2000-01-31
Posts: 9922

Re: Talking to Iranians

I know. Pathetic, that the administration only now is getting around to the real priority.


"There were places in the world commemorating those times when wizards hadn't been quite as clever [as to refrain from doing magic when you knew how easy it was], and on many of them the grass would never grow again."  Terry Prachett

There are 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.

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#18 2008-07-17 2:55 pm

user
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From: I'm not getting you down, am I
Registered: 2001-10-15
Posts: 14576

Re: Talking to Iranians

Gotta shine up the ol legacy.


Aw, he's no fun, he fell right over.

Unless you become as little children, there's no way you will believe this crap.

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#19 2008-07-17 2:56 pm

Colonel Panic
You need to restart
From: The bowels of code
Registered: 2003-10-12
Posts: 523

Re: Talking to Iranians

This is just like Churchill!


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#20 2008-07-17 3:39 pm

Ribtorus
Member
Registered: 2002-07-11
Posts: 13272

Re: Talking to Iranians

The neo-cons did like to imagine themselves as Churchill's heir. Churchill atoned for his role in the failure at Galipoli by volunteering with the army in France in WW1.  I find it hard to imagine any neo-con or war hawk making any such gesture  for their failures.


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#21 2008-07-17 3:40 pm

Ribtorus
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Registered: 2002-07-11
Posts: 13272

Re: Talking to Iranians

sturner wrote:

I know. Pathetic, that the administration only now is getting around to the real priority.

Troops will have to be pulled from Iraq to meet Afghan requirements.


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#22 2008-07-17 3:48 pm

bedstuy
Archimandrite, Eastern Elite
From: King Cole Bar, St. Regis Hotel
Registered: 2003-09-20
Posts: 12296

Re: Talking to Iranians

Bolton says this is a sure sign that the State Dept./Condi is preparing for an Obama administration.  They want the ducks in line in order for a smooth transition.

Makes sense frankly, as odd as that man is.

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#23 2008-07-17 3:53 pm

user
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From: I'm not getting you down, am I
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Re: Talking to Iranians

Bolton should just stick to high-rise demolitions.


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Unless you become as little children, there's no way you will believe this crap.

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#24 2008-07-17 3:53 pm

Ribtorus
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Registered: 2002-07-11
Posts: 13272

Re: Talking to Iranians

I think Bolton was pretty upset over the North Korean deal.

I agree that NK and Iran aren't the most trustworthy nations with which to negotiate, but then, they're hardly alone in that. Just ask Vietnam about making treaty deals with America. No one is innocent, but innocence isn't the standard in such things.


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#25 2008-07-19 5:07 am

Ribtorus
Member
Registered: 2002-07-11
Posts: 13272

Re: Talking to Iranians

The west, Europe in particular, had better get its skates on if it wants to deal with the Iranians.

Russia's Gazprom is getting ready to make a big play for Iran's gas fields. This could give Russia tremendous clout in the gas distribution market and I imagine that makes Europe very uneasy. Russia wields its gas market like a hammer. 

Iran is Russia's nuclear proxy and might become its energy one as well. If some meaningful accords between Iran and the west aren't reached, the Iraq Iran border will be the face-off point between east and west, and a new cold war waged over energy instead of ideology.

Last edited by Ribtorus (2008-07-19 5:08 am)


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