Forums | MacLife

There will undoubtedly be a spike in sales due to the new iMac. But I still think that laptop sales will be much stronger overall. Quite a few folks are deciding to replace their old desktops with laptops - both Windows and Mac. It's been a trend for some time.

I hope the rumors of a thin(ner) and light(er) MacBook are true...

Pariah wrote:

Possibly this quarter but I expect their sales to be impacted strongly by tightening credit and consumer unease. Apple has positioned it's desktop strategy around a luxury, boutique image.
Just the sort of thing that gets cut out of the budget in tight times.

Do people in the luxury catagory have a lot of sub-prime loans?

True, Frankly - that was my point.

I also see the downside risk in the economy that Pariah was describing.  An overall economic slow down caused by the credit crunch would certainly affect Apple - just not as much as say, an Acer or eMachines who targets the low end of the market.

A great irony to that situation is the impacts on market share.  Even though we know they don't mean didly squat (and aruged that point with various Trolls over the years here), if the low-end of PCs sees a big drop from these economic conditions, and the high-end experiences a lesser drop, then Apple's market share will increase.  While this means nothing on Apple's overall performance, it does give an interesting piece of counter-argument to any trolling - "hey look - Apple now has a 15% market share - they can't be doing all that bad".

Pariah wrote:

I think a down turn would effect Apple more than low end lines like eMachine. If this are flush one might look at a Mac, but if times are tight and you need a computer you can grab and eMachine for pocket change.
Who knows? Apple's growth has been during a time of fairly unprecedentedly easy credit. Whether that was a critical thing or not remains to be seen. My feeling (and my bias) is that MacBooks will remain unaffected by fluctuations but a down turn could harm their desktop line in particular. The consumer line of laptops stands up far better to a value argument than the iMacs.

I think what you are saying makes good sense, especially for a general economic downturn - luxury items are the first to go.

In a downturn driven by the sub-prime credit crisis, such a very specialized downturn would obviously hurt Apple less - that is what Frankly & I are describing. (and what I thought you had started with when you made your initial point).

frankly wrote:

Pariah wrote:

I think a down turn would effect Apple more than low end lines like eMachine. If this are flush one might look at a Mac, but if times are tight and you need a computer you can grab and eMachine for pocket change.
Who knows? Apple's growth has been during a time of fairly unprecedentedly easy credit. Whether that was a critical thing or not remains to be seen. My feeling (and my bias) is that MacBooks will remain unaffected by fluctuations but a down turn could harm their desktop line in particular. The consumer line of laptops stands up far better to a value argument than the iMacs.

The problem with your theory is that not everyone is being affected by this downturn. It is only the people at the lower end of the economic spectrum unfortunately. Since you pointed out that Apple has a luxury product those people weren't in the running to buy one in the first place. Quite frankly the people that can afford $1000+ and $2000+ computers aren't being affected as much by the current credit crunch.

Frank

You ar wrong to think the sub prime effect is only or even mostly at the low end of the econimy. Who invests in those kinds of securities? Also the effect that the tightening is having on home values in certain markets covers very broad incomes and the fact that the real damage from ARM loans adjusting up a couple of points is far more at the higher home price level.
Then there is the abuse of home equity loans across the board where raising home values gave people the illusion of affluence making them feel like they could float loans to the value of their homes. I know 5 people that bought new cars in the last few years and every sigle one of them used a home equity line of credit to buy that car.
In the last 5 or 6 years we have seen the typical American put themselves into debt deeper than any time since the great depression. 3 Years running of a negative savings rate.
There is no cushion under this little mess. If there was a reserve of cash under this there might not be a problem but we havent been saving at all.
So the sub prime effect is and will be quite wide.

You know what might cause a bump in desktop sales? If they FINALLY FREAKING SHIP LEOPARD.

Czachorski wrote:

ActionAttackJohn wrote:

You know what might cause a bump in desktop sales? If they FINALLY FREAKING SHIP LEOPARD.

Hopefully that will be one element that will keep the surge this quarter going.  Another being Xmas season.

Sorry to derail, but has the release date been set in stone yet? Or are we looking at Apple's new Vista.

11:59PM October 31.

Last edited by Mr. T (2007-09-22 10:07 pm)

frankly wrote:

ActionAttackJohn wrote:

You know what might cause a bump in desktop sales? If they FINALLY FREAKING SHIP LEOPARD.

Yep, and that has nothing to do with this thread since we are talking about the quarter that ends next week. The quarterly results for the quarter with Leopard will be discussed in January.

Thank you, thread police officer.

As (Professor) Randall Stross points out in his NY Times article, Apple's been having record (Mac sales) quarters for a bit now - without affecting the size of user base at all. Also he points out: Apple's missing the window of opportunity which opened when Windows PC users reacted so strongly - against - Vista.  That is, to summarize; Apple's "model" for its own stores "stinks" when compared to conventional retail outlets. (You know, the ones which cater to customer interests and needs.) 

(Customer order Macs: unavailable, replacement for backup batteries: unavailable, packaged products like Airport: sometimes "class action suit bad."  And the biggie: Apple has no intention of stepping on the toes of its  "authorized retailers" - when they could simply buy them out like [even stodgy] Kroger did with SEVERAL "regional markets" over recent years.)

http://tinyurl.com/2kkq7

Truth is - Steve Jobs has become masturbatory over his "net television specials" which are kept (ohh, so excitingly!) "secret" until the last minute.  He cares about selling the "cool new thing" of the week, not about aggressive competition in the personal (or business, or educational) computer market.   Go to an Apple store: see the teenies and tweenies chattering over the iPods and iPhones, oh my!! 
Next, he'll change his name to Elvis Jobs.   

Old rule: never let the VP-Sales become CEO.   
Oops! Too late.  ;-)

macinjack wrote:

Apple's missing the window of opportunity which opened when Windows PC users reacted so strongly - against - Vista.

By not doing what, exactly?  They are, afterall, breaking every record set for Mac sales - doesn't exactly sound like a lost opportunity to me.

Czachorski wrote:

macinjack wrote:

Apple's missing the window of opportunity which opened when Windows PC users reacted so strongly - against - Vista.

By not doing what, exactly?  They are, afterall, breaking every record set for Mac sales - doesn't exactly sound like a lost opportunity to me.

I understand, that's a reasonable question. So ---

Exactly this: by ignoring the well-established procedures for competing in a given market.  No matter what the retail product (cars to groceries to "electronics"): the strategy is to provide easiest access for customers (existing and potential) to the product or product line. I referred to Kroger, the largest national grocery retailer: they put up around 1,000 stores in their "home territory" (Midwest / Great Lakes) in EACH STATE in that region.  Then, they expanded into the Southwest and West by simply buying out regional chain (corporations).  Their drive from the start was to maximize customer convenience in terms of nearness to outlet and by providing maximum choice and various "customer conveniences" - including banking and florists and delicatessant foods. 

Toyota: Starting from scratch, they put up dealerships all over the country, trained personnel, provided a line of cars which took advantage of another "window of opportunity" created by two OPEC oil embargos in the 1970s.  They handed the lumbering US auto industry a big can of whupass, is what they did.
(Don't have to like it, just recognize the advantages of the strategy, see.) 

Apple, by contrast, has done a great job of hyping the few stores it creates every year.  You know - being from Ypsi - until the opening of the Briarwood store in A2, the nearest Apple Store was 35 mi. away, in Novi.  The next nearest over 40 mi. away in Troy.   This took YEARS to come about.   What, four - maybe five - stores in all of Michigan?  Think about it and ask if Apple is serious when they proved that thin coverage for 9 million people living in 44, 000 sq. miles. And as everyone knows, the stores themselves are not "full service" stores by any measure.
   
In terms of money spent per customer, groceries certainly rival buying computers "per year."  So Apple puts up 4 or 5 stores in Michigan, Kroger put up over ONE THOUSAND stores (and they just bought up about 25 Detroit-area Farmer Jack stores last month).   

You reasonably are puzzled by the published figures: Apple has had at least three record quarters (selling Macs, not the music, etc) in a row. Fine - big deal and more power to them - except they are tiny-tiny in terms of total computer volume sold by all makers.  With their record-setting pace, they are adding (at most!) 1% per year to their user base.

We all have applauded some great Apple ads (tv and "Apple website gems") - but when someone (lets say, Mr. Average User) gets interested in Macs because of those ads, WHERE does he (they - by the thousands) go to get a look at the actual product? Does he (as a few actually do) travel 35-40-180 miles to an Apple Store?   Nah, he takes a look at PC Joe's computer in his next door neighbor's house and then goes and buys a Dell - or whatever.

Macs are fine computers - I love/love/love the Mac Pro I bought about 6 weeks ago. I love the old eMac I'm "expanding" with a 250 GB drive and upgrade-to-Super Drive in the other room.   But when it comes to "appreciating" Apple's inadequate "accessibility" and it's (silly) secretiveness - sorry, I just can't avoid the impression that Steve Jobs has "turned them around" - right back to the blundering company that almost killed itself off in the 1980s and early '90s.     

Just wish the "devoted followers" here and elsewhere would get a dose of wake-the-hell-up and stop taking FACTS of commerce and industry "personally."   This isn't about loyalty - get it?  It's about trying to make the existing customer base more demanding - for Apple's good as well as our own.

This thread is about getting people's estimate of Apple's "fortunes" (presumably, vis-a-vis its computer products).  Based on Apple's poor (some would say self-defeating) competitive strategies - I can only hope they survive.  No way are they going to gain significant ground as it is.

Last edited by macinjack (2007-09-23 2:13 am)