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It'll last until Nintendo stops creating this false shortage just to make headlines and generate buzz.



Kidding.

I'm going to guess it'll last until about june.

Of course, given that at current rates Nintendo is manufacturing as many Wiis in one year as they made total GameCubes over 5 and have shipped more consoles in less time than any system in history, playing it safe is a rather relative term.

At most, the Wii shortages might be somewhat less prevalent by late summer/early fall, but they'll be scare as ice water in hell come October/November and the 2008 Holiday season. And I wouldn't be surprised to see shortages continue all the way into 2009.

Reason 1: Titles like Wii Fit will be genuine system-sellers, but unlike games like Halo that show a substantial one month spike in hardware sales then return to roughly their previous numbers, Wii Fit will have tremendous legs and will continue to sell Wiis for months. It's going to be a Wii Sports-style hit that has enormous legs rather than something like Smash Bros. or Mario that sells to the dedicated fans but goes through most of its hardware-selling ability in a relatively short time-period. Wii Fit's effect on hardware sales will last far beyond May.

Reason 2: Nintendo has an extremely impressive lineup for the first half of 2008. Smash Bros., Wii Fit, and [likely] Mario Kart will all hit by June. Even if the sales spikes from SSM and Mario Kart are relatively short-lived, that's still plenty of demand to keep the hardware in shor tsupply through July or August at the very least.

Reason 3: The two biggest games on the GameCube were Smash Bros. Melee and Mario Kart. Nintendo is launching sequels to both of those within a relatively short time span and in the first half of this year. Both are easily banner titles that could be flagship holiday games. The fact that Nintendo is NOT pushing them as such, but rather is launching them far earlier in the year (even if Mario Kart hits as late as August this still holds true) says that the games they haven't revealed are going to be enormous. If they don't need those two titles in the latter half of the year, then it means they have enough unannounced games to maintain a high level of demand.

Reason 4: They haven't even met all the back demand yet. There are still a large number of customers out there who want a Wii as it stands right now and haven't been able to find one. Given that the system has continued to sell out despite record shipments for 15 straight months, it's also clear that Nintendo is not losing a significant number of customers to frustration over supplies. So before Nintendo even has to worry about attracting new customers they can coast for quite some time off the ones that are already in their pockets. The three other factors I've listed above will stoke demand even higher beyond its already unmet levels.

So yeah, it's going to be a long time before you can just walk into a store and reliably buy a Wii. And even if it happens this year, it will be a temporary event that will vanish come the holidays (see the DS, which also becomes extremely elusive come the holidays, and that system can even meet demand during most of the year).

Better Bat?

Last edited by Chris FOM (2008-02-22 8:15 am)

OMG, a Chris FOM sighting!

Chris FOM wrote:

Of course, given that at current rates blah blah..

(Seriously, Chris, whatever you're writing about- in general, almost always- your formatting, well, sucks. It looks like a run-on sentence; I see a solid block of text, my eyes glaze and as often as not I give up before I go into vapor lock- or get the vapors, whichever. Didn't, even, your med texts have charts and graphs to [s]break the monotony[/s] illustrate their points? )

Even separating your points by one line would help. Frmtplzthksbye


(Edit: it's not that any of the info itself is bad, just written so densely as to be between Russian-novel and nigh incomprehensible without bring major effort to bear. No insult intended. I like to read your stuff when it's more reader-friendly. )

Last edited by Bat (2008-02-22 1:55 am)

Bat wasn't lying, menth. And he wrote that he actually liked to read Chris' stuff. On the other hand, you simply attacked Bat for being a Fox news journalist. Well done.
By the way, counting emoticons as one word, your post had 140 words whereas Bat's had 130.

My thoughts on the Wii have been... variable to say the least. Nintendo's announcement and the wait for the release had me on the Wii hype train like no other. 15 months later, I'm saving up for a Jasper 360 supposedly coming this summer.

I suppose it's the games. The Wii had me going with Metroid Prime III, Super Mario Galaxy, and soon enough Brawl, but at the current moment the 360's lineup has me salivating more [add drool Max here ]

Concerning the Wii shortages, I really can't tell. I would've thought the Wii's selling bubble to have popped months ago, but that obviously is not the case. Chris' Reason 3 has me wondering: haven't those gamers waiting for the hit sequel games (SSBBrawl/Mario Kart) already have picked up a Wii by now? I can't really tell, but my cronies who've been waiting for Brawl already picked up their system within the year after the Wii launch.

Chris' Reason 3 - also exciting. Yet to be released games deserving the Holiday sales lineup? SWEET! And Nintendo had better. The Wii's attach rate is dismal.

Chris FOM wrote:

...

Better Bat?

I'm glad I looked up-page, or I'd never have seen the edit.

Yes, much. I'll give it a full read after dinner and a rest.

Actually ABigSmall, after December the Wii had a tie ratio of 4.64, well ahead of the PS3's 4.26 and not far behind the 360's 5.1 at 14 months (given the tie ratios pretty much automatically climb as a console ages, that extra year is critically important). And if you look beyond the simple tie ratio to actual software sales, the Wii is performing extremely well. The 360 sold 23 million software units in its first 14 months, while the Wii sold 34 million. The slightly lower tie ratio is more than made up for by the fact that Wii hardware sales drastically outpaced 360 hardware sales over their respective first 14 months on the market. Even directly comparing last year the 360 sold 41 million software units to the Wii's 34 despite a much larger installed base, so as the Wii's own installed base continues to climb and eventually surpasses the 360's the higher tie ratio will be rendered irrelevant by an overwhelming advantage in their relative installed bases..

::thoroughly  enjoys playing with his wii::



The software library is less than satisfactory, but it seems to be growing.  I'm looking forward to several games that are due out soon.

No, I meant tie ratio. That's the correct term. There's no such thing as attach ratio. Attach rate, on the other hand, refers to the percentage of the installed base a given game has sold too. For example, at last count, Halo 3 had an attach rate around or just over 0.5, meaning the the game had sold slightly more that one copy for every two 360s sold. Tie ratio, on the other hand, is the term used for dividing total cumulative software sales by total cumulative hardware sales, giving a picture of how many games the "average" owner has purchased. It has a number of very real limitations to its actual applicability that I won't go into here, but it's the best measure we have as to how active an installed base is and so it remains popular.

And yes, the 360 at the end of December 2007 had a tie ratio of 7.0, drastically higher than the Wiis. However, the nature of game and hardware sales means that tie ratio automatically rises with time. Given that the 360 has been out just under twice as long as the Wii (26 vs. 14 months at the end of December, which is the last date we have tie ratios for), that extra time on the market alone creates a drastic difference in tie ratios even when software sales are actually comparable between the two platforms. Therefore the 5.1 number I gave was the 360's tie ratio at the end of 2006, when it had been on the market as long as the Wii had at the end of 2007. This gives a far more accurate picture, which can be further demonstrated by looking at absolute software sales between the platforms.

The 360 sold 23 million units of software in its first 14 months, then another 40 million in its next 12. The Wii thus far has sold 34 million software units in its first 14 months. I don't know the total software sales after December 2006, so I can't compare the 12 months of 2007 directly between the platforms, but given that the Wii had a very low tie ratio for its first few months I would speculate that it still cleared 30 million in 2007, meaning that even with a vastly smaller installed base the Wii still sold 3/4 as much software as did the 360 last year.

Oh and finally ABigSmall, the Wii may not be the 360 in terms of its library, but what's out there is still pretty good. If you haven't played beyond Wii Sports, you should do so. Super Mario Galaxy is an automatic all-time classic, Metroid Prime 3 is extremely good, No More Heroes is absolutely fantastic, Zack and Wiki is a very good old-school adventure game, and so on. I'm quite satisfied with the library of games I've picked up.

Bat wrote:

mentholiptus wrote:

http://homepage.mac.com/oatmeal/MAF/maxes/applause.gif

No, you're not allowed smilies, let alone animated ones. They're undignified and only make people shake their heads and post derisive nonsense.

You can't have fun in here, this is the Games room.

Bat, there's a difference between making a simple statement and making a huge mess of a post.

If I'm the one who's given you a distaste for the wii , I guess you really aren't as intelligent as you like you paint yourself.  You can't get all worked up over others statements or opinions , if you're going to display the exact same behavior you decry.(hence the "fox" comment)

You do tend to have a pompous streak whenever you percieve yourself as knowing more than someone else, but then get pissy once you've been 1up'd (remember the HD argument before you realized I work in the color management field?)

Anyway...don't take it to heart... If you're willing to dish it out, you need to be willing to eat it from time to time. I'm sure we could all dig up examples of you being just as brash with others. I viewed it as harmless ribbing, and figured since you do the same, you'd just deal with it. I'll be more gentle with you in the future.

mentholiptus wrote:

Bat wrote:

mentholiptus wrote:

http://homepage.mac.com/oatmeal/MAF/maxes/applause.gif

No, you're not allowed smilies, let alone animated ones. They're undignified and only make people shake their heads and post derisive nonsense.

You can't have fun in here, this is the Games room.

Bat, there's a difference between making a simple statement and making a huge mess of a post.

If I'm the one who's given you a distaste for the wii , I guess you really aren't as intelligent as you like you paint yourself.  You can't get all worked up over others statements or opinions , if you're going to display the exact same behavior you decry.(hence the "fox" comment)

You do tend to have a pompous streak whenever you percieve yourself as knowing more than someone else, but then get pissy once you've been 1up'd (remember the HD argument before you realized I work in the color management field?)

Anyway...don't take it to heart... If you're willing to dish it out, you need to be willing to eat it from time to time. I'm sure we could all dig up examples of you being just as brash with others. I viewed it as harmless ribbing, and figured since you do the same, you'd just deal with it. I'll be more gentle with you in the future.

mentholiptus wrote:

FutureDreamz wrote:

http://homepage.mac.com/oatmeal/MAF/max … Sucked.gif

Wait...wait...let me explain...see, Bat said that I was the reason he doesn't like the wii, then all I said was...

Obviously

mentholiptus wrote:

FutureDreamz wrote:

mentholiptus wrote:

Wait...wait...let me explain...see, Bat said that I was the reason he doesn't like the wii, then all I said was...

Obviously http://homepage.mac.com/oatmeal/MAF/maxes/dunce.gif