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It's almost like you haven't read this thread a'tall.

Want to hear a scary thought? Everlong is McCain.

[Tycho?] wrote:

everlong205 wrote:

Part of the freezeout of Al Sadr

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/I/ … TE=DEFAULT

In addition to losing many of his forces, he is being marginalized by Shias Sunnis and Kurds in govt, and is being forced to either disband his mahdi army or leave poitics in addition to the disbanding of mitias.

If Sadr had won, I doubt he would be so marginalized, let alone hiding in Iran. .

1) As the article you linked to states, he's been in Iran for a year. He is not hiding there because he lost in Basra.

2) Lets just see how marginalized he is. I'd like to see how al-Maliki can get any kind of legal backing for his plan, since, as that article also reminds us, every political party is backed by militias.

I will make the following predictions. Firstly, and obviously, Sadr isn't going to disband his militias. I can't see how anybody would actually think that he would do this. Secondly, trying to force him out of politics will backfire. What are they going to do, kick out of the government anyone loyal to him? I'm sure that will be popular, especially since Iraq is apparently a democracy now.

Like it or lump it Sadr wields a significant amount of power in Iraq, and is quite popular. Whether he is formally involved in the political process or not is irrelevant, those in power have to deal with al Sadr if they want to get anything done.

al Maliki just wants to keep him contained, he's worried (rightfully so) that al Sadr will pick up more seats in the coming October elections. And I dont think this attempt to push him out is going to do them any good.

THis is obviously something that will have to play itself out for us to see the results. He's certainly been marginalized, and is being squeezed. And many of his thugs have been killed or routed. And he is in Iran. He was there before, but that occured when he previously was bitch slapped. What occured recently did not give Sadr some great hand to play.
And yes, if its a matter of security and his militias are disrupting security he can be squeezed out. Its not an assault on democracy if he is trying to disrupt democracy with his militias and Maliki is trying to restore order. Sadr's militias were able to take control of Basra when the brits pulled out. As such this is a dispute that was destined to occur and will have to occur.
Sadr has less influence then he thinks, and fewer friends than he thinks. And his  influence, while he is squirreled away in Iran is becoming more and more tenuous.

ShnickyShnack wrote:

SOUND THE ARGUMENT RETREAT!!!

:: blows bugle ::

ShnickyShnack wrote:

Want to hear a scary thought? Everlong is McCain.

ShnickyShnack wrote:

It's almost like you haven't read this thread a'tall.

Come on Shnicky, you can do better than that.

ShnickyShnack wrote:

everlong205 wrote:

THis is obviously something that will have to play itself out for us to see the results. He's certainly been marginalized, and is being squeezed. And many of his thugs have been killed or routed. And he is in Iran. He was there before, but that occured when he previously was bitch slapped. What occured recently did not give Sadr some great hand to play.
And yes, if its a matter of security and his militias are disrupting security he can be squeezed out. Its not an assault on democracy if he is trying to disrupt democracy with his militias and Maliki is trying to restore order. Sadr's militias were able to take control of Basra when the brits pulled out. As such this is a dispute that was destined to occur and will have to occur.
Sadr has less influence then he thinks, and fewer friends than he thinks. And his  influence, while he is squirreled away in Iran is becoming more and more tenuous.

SOUND THE ARGUMENT RETREAT!!!

:: blows bugle ::

How so? The first part of the conversation was about what just happened. Tycho then made predictions about what will  happen. Noone can say until it does. I disagree with the assessment that somehow Maliki lost. However, I leave open the possibilty that future events could change.

That doesn't change the fact that Sadr was slapped around but good in the current struggle (and by Sadr, I mean the idiots who are following him while he gets his ayatollah degree in the two year program in Iran). Yes he wasn't completely defeated, and every one of his men wiped from the face of the earth. But is that whats being passed off as victory? Unless Maliki completely eradicates any trace of Sadr ever, then he loses. Sadr's militias controled Basra and were making chaos, Maliki had to stand up to the militias and did so, and smakced them good. Yes, not a death blow, but this wont be the end of the situation. Then on the political front Sadrs men are beoing frozen out from govt unless they play ball and abandon the militias. And pressure is being applied By Shia Sunni and Kurd.  If they don't capitulate then they get kicked out of the govt and Sadr's men get smacked again. They coulnd't maintain the last skirmish, what makes you think they'd be able to regroup and handle another one?

bratboy wrote:

everlong205 wrote:

Sadr has less influence then he thinks, and fewer friends than he thinks. And his  influence, while he is squirreled away in Iran is becoming more and more tenuous.

Through what have you gained your intimate knowledge of Sadr's "influence" in Iraq?  From what I've read, many Iraqis viewed the current fighting as a victory for Sadr.  Is this a mischaracterization of what Iraqis truly believe?

Many do and many don't. Im sure those loyal to Sadr, would be counted amongst the many you refer to. But even if many do believe, many also don't believe it. You're doing exactly what you say I do when I use the words, "the left" to describe the left to describe Iraqis. Suddenly many is all? How many is in the many?

bratboy wrote:

everlong205 wrote:

Many do and many don't. Im sure those loyal to Sadr, would be counted amongst the many you refer to. But even if many do believe, many also don't believe it. You're doing exactly what you say I do when I use the words, "the left" to describe the left to describe Iraqis. Suddenly many is all? How many is in the many?

What?  I'm not generalizing, nor did I claim that "many" is "all."

You've asked why this had been portrayed as a "victory" for Sadr--and I would imagine that has to do, in large part, with how the situation was viewed by the Iraqi people.

I'm sure the Iraqi people have many different views. Those loyal to Sadr, I'm sure, are trying to paint it in the best possible light.
Here's a link that shows Sunni and Kurds showing support for Maliki:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080405/ap_ … _al_maliki

Sadr needed Iran to request a ceasefire. Sadr cancelled his million man march. Maliki took it upon himself to carry out the attacks as opposed to relying on the US to plan the action. Whether it went flawlessly or not, it does demonstrate that Maliki is willing to act when necessary and doesn't have to rely totally on the US (isn't that by the way one of the complaints from the antiwar critics, that the Iraqis aren't taking charge themselves?)
The media, as Patreus mentioned today, failed to note that in addition to Basra other operations were carried out on the same days in other cities that went well.

Here's another link about how the mahdi army offers to lay down its arms:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w … 701511.ece

The entire govt., including everyother major group except for the Sadrists, condemned the Sadr militia and called for its disarmament.
So we have them offering to disarm, and we have every other party demanding that they disarm. All the other militias have been disbanded or incorporated into the army, only Sadrs remains. So he is basically standing alone against everybody. And he's being squeezed politically and militarily.

Don't see how that is anything but a victory for Maliki.
Even the Sadrists are admitting they are in a bind:

"We, the Sadrists, are in a predicament," lawmaker Hassan al-Rubaie said Sunday. "Even the blocs that had in the past supported us are now against us and we cannot stop them from taking action against us in parliament."

Last edited by everlong205 (2008-04-08 2:00 pm)

Ribtorus wrote:

"All the other militias have been disbanded or incorporated into the army..."?

Really?

Its a government press release !

And the Badr brigades? You know, the one that Iran trains.

What's their status? Who's side are they on?

ShnickyShnack wrote:

Ribtorus wrote:

And the Badr brigades? You know, the one that Iran trains.

What's their status? Who's side are they on?

And aren't they the biggest, baddest kid on the block?

Yeah. They've managed to get quite the collection of friends. And not too much press either. I bet that suits a lot of folks.

More good news from the front lines.

That guy shouldn't have been in a position to be kidnapped in the first place.