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I followed the xkcd theory:
"My dad said that flu vaccines are linked to autism, so to safe from swine flu I'm trying to lick an autistic kid"

Apparently, there is a 'major' outbreak in the Huntsville area. Idiots from Birmingham keep breaking in to have press conferences - over four kids who 'may' have 'mild' cases of the swine flu. Schools are already closed. At the rate we are going, these kids could be going back to school in July.

Needless to say, I haven't been impressed.

Hank Rearden wrote:

jerwin wrote:

The Spanish Flu was caused by Influenza a/h1n1. The spanish flu killed between 50 and 100 million people.

So, does every A/H1N1 kill millions?

Are we living in 1918?

How might current world conditions and technology make the longterm outcome better/worse?

Those are all excellent questions. Perhaps you can meditate on them when you bury your loved ones.

WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE.

Resedit, is this a sign of the last days?

I hear that this thing is essentially bullsmurf. It's just the flu. We "Westernized" folk, with normal immune systems and a trip to the doctor should be fine.

jerwin wrote:

The Spanish Flu was caused by Influenza a/h1n1. The spanish flu killed between 50 and 100 million people.

Reports indicate that this variety has little in common with the 1918 flu, specifically a component which made it very deadly.
Additionally, I saw an article today about how Mexico may have overestimated the original impact statistics.
http://skepticalhypochondriac.com/2009/ … el-numero/

Seems I'm coming down with something. Maybe it's the swine flu and I'll get to test this smurfer out for myself. Bring it, bitch!

WHAT?!

Last edited by Mustapha Mond (2009-05-01 9:21 pm)

I had read that it took around five months for 1918's Spanish flu to really gain a foothold and be smurfing a lot of people up. Give this one another month or two, if it's even more obvious it's a slow-news-day kinda story, then it's probably nothing. Don't discount it too quickly.

I don't mean to upset anyone here who has already panicked, BUT....

During the normal flu season in the U.S. approximately 35,000 people die from the flu each year.

Right now, with the non-existent statistics we have on A/H1N1, we don't know it's true virulence. However, it would appear that it isn't dissimilar to the normal flu season variety. This is all from CDC.

Ok, we return you to your normally scheduled panic.

wellfleation wrote:

Hank Rearden wrote:

jerwin wrote:

The Spanish Flu was caused by Influenza a/h1n1. The spanish flu killed between 50 and 100 million people.

So, does every A/H1N1 kill millions?

Are we living in 1918?

How might current world conditions and technology make the longterm outcome better/worse?

Well, people are able to spread something such as this globally more easily.

Well, seeing as it broke out at the end of WWI, things were at least somewhat different.

1. People were living in crowded, filthy conditions in Europe... trenches and torn up towns at the end of the war.

2. People were moving all over the world, going back to their countries of origin... in crowded filthy conditions in ships.

3. Many of the victims died of secondary bacterial infections; we do have antibiotics to treat that now, as compared to then.

4. We have antivirals to attack the virus itself. They didn't.

5. We have better methods of developing vaccines. We can mass vaccinate. They didn't/couldn't.

6. Our tracking systems are 100's of times better than theirs were.

My feeling... it's a way different world now.

My biggest fear... that this thing dribble-drabbles around all summer and takes off with a vengeance in the autumn when people aren't paying much attention any more.

Hank Rearden wrote:

wellfleation wrote:

Hank Rearden wrote:

So, does every A/H1N1 kill millions?

Are we living in 1918?

How might current world conditions and technology make the longterm outcome better/worse?

Well, people are able to spread something such as this globally more easily.

Well, seeing as it broke out at the end of WWI, things were at least somewhat different.

1. People were living in crowded, filthy conditions in Europe... trenches and torn up towns at the end of the war.

2. People were moving all over the world, going back to their countries of origin... in crowded filthy conditions in ships.

3. Many of the victims died of secondary bacterial infections; we do have antibiotics to treat that now, as compared to then.

4. We have antivirals to attack the virus itself. They didn't.

5. We have better methods of developing vaccines. We can mass vaccinate. They didn't/couldn't.

6. Our tracking systems are 100's of times better than theirs were.

My feeling... it's a way different world now.

My biggest fear... that this thing dribble-drabbles around all summer and takes off with a vengeance in the autumn when people aren't paying much attention any more.

Travel patterns were totally different back then. It would take a long time to get from Kansas, say, to Paris. Nowdays nowhere is more than 24 hours away. Considering how many millions of people travel by air, it's pretty clear what this means in terms of spreading a disease. In the case of this new outbreak it had spread all over the world by the time they even noticed it.

Yes, we're better equipped to handle it, but developing treatments take time.

I remember SARS very well. Luckily it turned out to be a nonfatal disease, but by the time that realization hit the health system of the Toronto area -- one of the largest on the continent -- was on the verge of collapse. It should have been a wake-up call.

Last edited by ShnickyShnack (2009-05-02 10:55 am)

resedit wrote:

Hank Rearden wrote:

sturner wrote:

However, it would appear that it isn't dissimilar to the normal flu season variety.

It will evolve over the next several years. It could get a lot worse (although, the trend is often in the reverse direction) depending upon the selective pressures that it encounters.

That is, if you know that evolution is a fact. If you don't, then it will stay the same forever and ever and ever.

That's the problem with the word evolution.
It isn't precise enough in scope.

I'm sure you have a precise definition. It's probably not very accurate.