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#1 2009-09-20 4:13 pm

ShnickyShnack
::: title edited due to Satanic influences :::
From: Rockin' out
Registered: 2001-05-25
Posts: 22237

Cutting the nuclear arsenal

Report: Obama has ordered the Pentagon to prepare for deep cuts in the nuclear arsenal

Obama has rejected the Pentagon's first draft of the "nuclear posture review" as being too timid, and has called for a range of more far-reaching options consistent with his goal of eventually abolishing nuclear weapons altogether, according to European officials.

Those options include:

• Reconfiguring the US nuclear force to allow for an arsenal measured in hundreds rather than thousands of deployed strategic warheads.

• Redrafting nuclear doctrine to narrow the range of conditions under which the US would use nuclear weapons.

• Exploring ways of guaranteeing the future reliability of nuclear weapons without testing or producing a new generation of warheads.

The review is due to be completed by the end of this year, and European officials say the outcome is not yet clear. But one official said: "Obama is now driving this process. He is saying these are the president's weapons, and he wants to look again at the doctrine and their role."

Interesting! I hope he does something dramatic. There's really no reason to have more than a small number of nuclear warheads.


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#2 2009-09-20 4:34 pm

resedit
Chicken Little
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From: /dev/null
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Posts: 50411
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Re: Cutting the nuclear arsenal

While we probably do have too many, you need a large supply because nuclear warheads can be destroyed before they are used.

The more you have spread out in different locations, the less likely it is a would be attacker would be able to render your supply impotent, and they know that.


In her right hand Jenny held the Bible of her mother
Jenny had a pistol in the other
-- Steve Taylor

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#3 2009-09-20 4:38 pm

resedit
Chicken Little
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Re: Cutting the nuclear arsenal

It's also helpful to have a large supply to get around anti missile defenses.
Fire 100 missiles at, say, Madrid - even if their defenses catch 95% of them before they reach their target, there's still serious damage done.

Madrid was picked at Random, nothing against them nor do I think there is remotely any cause to go to war with Spain.

Last edited by resedit (2009-09-20 4:38 pm)


In her right hand Jenny held the Bible of her mother
Jenny had a pistol in the other
-- Steve Taylor

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#4 2009-09-20 6:01 pm

robco
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From: Sodom
Registered: 2004-12-04
Posts: 7944
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Re: Cutting the nuclear arsenal

I think we should consider following the UK and France and go with SSBNs and get rid of our land-based nukes and bombers. The subs are very difficult to detect, are extremely mobile (and hence spread out) and the MIRVs are almost impossible to shoot down. They work for pre-emptive strikes, or to deliver that final "smurf you" should the US be obliterated first.

I wonder how much money these cuts could save, should make the teabaggers happy.

Last edited by robco (2009-09-20 6:01 pm)


It is an odd thing, but every one who disappears is said to be seen at San Francisco. It must be a delightful city, and possess all the attractions of the next world.
- Oscar Wilde

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#5 2009-09-20 6:04 pm

resedit
Chicken Little
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Re: Cutting the nuclear arsenal

I suspect they really won't save any money, it's old deprecated missiles they will get rid of.


In her right hand Jenny held the Bible of her mother
Jenny had a pistol in the other
-- Steve Taylor

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#6 2009-09-20 6:05 pm

resedit
Chicken Little
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Posts: 50411
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Re: Cutting the nuclear arsenal

In fact, proper disposal of them will likely cost us money.


In her right hand Jenny held the Bible of her mother
Jenny had a pistol in the other
-- Steve Taylor

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#7 2009-09-20 6:06 pm

robco
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From: Sodom
Registered: 2004-12-04
Posts: 7944
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Re: Cutting the nuclear arsenal

Storage and maintenance, maintaining and staffing the silos, etc. has to cost something. Not replacing them with newer weapons should also save some coin as well.

We just need to leave a few in Montana so Zefarm Cochrane can build his warp ship...


It is an odd thing, but every one who disappears is said to be seen at San Francisco. It must be a delightful city, and possess all the attractions of the next world.
- Oscar Wilde

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#8 2009-09-20 7:08 pm

Pariah
James Carville Fan..
From: Belly Of The Beast, Oklahoma!
Registered: 2001-05-24
Posts: 18425

Re: Cutting the nuclear arsenal

Two men are standing in a tank filled up to their waists with gasoline.
The first man has 7 matches the second man has 5.

Who is safer?


"and it's not surprising that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."
Barack Obama

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#9 2009-09-20 7:16 pm

Tallgeese
Sternly Advising
From: Pool Party
Registered: 2000-10-17
Posts: 34103

Re: Cutting the nuclear arsenal

Pariah wrote:

Two men are standing in a tank filled up to their waists with gasoline.
The first man has 7 matches the second man has 5.

Who is safer?

How big is the tank? If it gives a vapor level outside the LEL/UEL, they're both safe.


I still believe in liberalism today as much as I ever did, but, oh, there was a happy time when I believed in liberals.

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#10 2009-09-20 7:17 pm

Tallgeese
Sternly Advising
From: Pool Party
Registered: 2000-10-17
Posts: 34103

Re: Cutting the nuclear arsenal

...well, except for suffocation risk.


I still believe in liberalism today as much as I ever did, but, oh, there was a happy time when I believed in liberals.

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#11 2009-09-20 7:20 pm

daemon
blank prince HAL
From: Golden Road (Out of Perdition)
Registered: 2008-01-03
Posts: 3650
Website

Re: Cutting the nuclear arsenal

Pariah wrote:

Two men are standing in a tank filled up to their waists with gasoline.
The first man has 7 matches the second man has 5.

Who is safer?

Neither.

I throw in my lit match.

Last edited by daemon (2009-09-20 7:20 pm)


Brigid O'Shaughnessy: I haven't lived a good life. I've been bad, worse than you could know.
Sam Spade: You know, that's good, because if you actually were as innocent as you pretend to be, we'd never get anywhere.
http://sitruc.blip.tv/file/2661495/

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#12 2009-09-20 9:15 pm

KHannon
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Registered: 2000-05-14
Posts: 3097

Re: Cutting the nuclear arsenal

resedit wrote:

While we probably do have too many, you need a large supply because nuclear warheads can be destroyed before they are used.

Geesie-- what would you guess is the likelihood that not just one, but ALL of the SSBNs are taken out in a first strike?

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#13 2009-09-20 9:53 pm

sturner
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Moderator
From: Carrollton, TX USA
Registered: 2000-01-31
Posts: 13828

Re: Cutting the nuclear arsenal

resedit wrote:

It's also helpful to have a large supply to get around anti missile defenses.
Fire 100 missiles at, say, Madrid - even if their defenses catch 95% of them before they reach their target, there's still serious damage done.

Madrid was picked at Random, nothing against them nor do I think there is remotely any cause to go to war with Spain.

That's why we have the nuclear submarine fleet with missiles armed with MIRVs. It's very hard to hit those, and the only people likely to even try would be the Russians.


I'm not dead yet.
There are 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
"There are few things graven in stone, excepting your date of death."

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#14 2009-09-20 10:12 pm

Steyr AUG
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From: 'Nam
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Posts: 27547
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Re: Cutting the nuclear arsenal

robco wrote:

I think we should consider following the UK and France and go with SSBNs and get rid of our land-based nukes and bombers. The subs are very difficult to detect, are extremely mobile (and hence spread out) and the MIRVs are almost impossible to shoot down. They work for pre-emptive strikes, or to deliver that final "smurf you" should the US be obliterated first.

Sub launched missiles are also extremely difficult to communicate with. Since command and control is a critical part of strategic nuclear forces, cutting the arsenal down to just sublaunched missiles doesnt make any sense. You are also looking at the stopping of incoming missiles in very limited terms. There are many ways a launch can be foiled that dont involve shooting down each individual MIRV (boost phase interception, cutting off C2, etc)

The current doctrine of the strategic nuclear triad ensures nuclear deterrence. Only having SSBNs does not.


Just like back in Saigon! Eh, slick?

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#15 2009-09-20 10:17 pm

sturner
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Moderator
From: Carrollton, TX USA
Registered: 2000-01-31
Posts: 13828

Re: Cutting the nuclear arsenal

Wouldn't want the Air Force to loose out on their big club, would we.

They already have decommissioned many silos.

And the B-52 fleet is more susceptible to interception and destruction than an SSNB.


I'm not dead yet.
There are 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
"There are few things graven in stone, excepting your date of death."

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#16 2009-09-20 10:18 pm

JakeTheTall
Cargo Cultist
From: In Permanent Opposition
Registered: 2003-03-13
Posts: 9616

Re: Cutting the nuclear arsenal

Slim Pickens !


Jesus said to the servants, "Fill the jars with water"; so they filled them to the brim.  Then he told them, "Now draw some out and take it to the master of the banquet."  They did so, and the master of the banquet tasted the water that had been turned into wine. He did not realize where it had come from, though the servants who had drawn the water knew.

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#17 2009-09-20 10:33 pm

Steyr AUG
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From: 'Nam
Registered: 2001-08-24
Posts: 27547
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Re: Cutting the nuclear arsenal

sturner wrote:

And the B-52 fleet is more susceptible to interception and destruction than an SSNB.

Irrelevant. Each system has its weaknesses, together the nuclear triad makes it virtually impossible to negate the possibility of a second strike.


Just like back in Saigon! Eh, slick?

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#18 2009-09-20 10:52 pm

sturner
Royal High Poobah
Moderator
From: Carrollton, TX USA
Registered: 2000-01-31
Posts: 13828

Re: Cutting the nuclear arsenal

Possibility. An interesting word. It doesn't asses the probability of success.

The SSBN fleet is what changed the equation and led the Soviet and U.S. military to believe that they could accept nuclear arms reduction. The probability of aircraft penetrating to their targets in a high intensity environment is very, very small. Even with current counter-electronic warfare suites in place on the aircraft, their survivability to target is small.

Against a less than technological equal it becomes much more likely.


I'm not dead yet.
There are 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
"There are few things graven in stone, excepting your date of death."

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#19 2009-09-20 10:54 pm

sturner
Royal High Poobah
Moderator
From: Carrollton, TX USA
Registered: 2000-01-31
Posts: 13828

Re: Cutting the nuclear arsenal

Come to think of it, the available SSBNs and land based missiles would likely have launched and hit their targets before the airfleet even penetrated enemy airspace and closed on their targets.


I'm not dead yet.
There are 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
"There are few things graven in stone, excepting your date of death."

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#20 2009-09-21 12:55 am

resedit
Chicken Little
Royal Wombat
From: /dev/null
Registered: 1999-11-01
Posts: 50411
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Re: Cutting the nuclear arsenal

robco wrote:

Storage and maintenance, maintaining and staffing the silos, etc. has to cost something. Not replacing them with newer weapons should also save some coin as well.

You may be right.
Perhaps the budget for safe disposal should come when the missile is first put into stock, so that dismantling it later doesn't cost anything because the funds have already been allocated.


In her right hand Jenny held the Bible of her mother
Jenny had a pistol in the other
-- Steve Taylor

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#21 2009-09-21 1:19 am

Steyr AUG
Agent Orange
From: 'Nam
Registered: 2001-08-24
Posts: 27547
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Re: Cutting the nuclear arsenal

sturner wrote:

Possibility. An interesting word. It doesn't asses the probability of success.

The SSBN fleet is what changed the equation and led the Soviet and U.S. military to believe that they could accept nuclear arms reduction. The probability of aircraft penetrating to their targets in a high intensity environment is very, very small. Even with current counter-electronic warfare suites in place on the aircraft, their survivability to target is small.

Against a less than technological equal it becomes much more likely.

Arms reduction is a completely different concept than dismantling two legs of the strategic nuclear triad. Nuclear subs are an important part obviously, but they are unable to command nuclear deference on their own.


Just like back in Saigon! Eh, slick?

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#22 2009-09-21 1:28 am

KHannon
Member
Registered: 2000-05-14
Posts: 3097

Re: Cutting the nuclear arsenal

Steyr AUG wrote:

sturner wrote:

Possibility. An interesting word. It doesn't asses the probability of success.

The SSBN fleet is what changed the equation and led the Soviet and U.S. military to believe that they could accept nuclear arms reduction. The probability of aircraft penetrating to their targets in a high intensity environment is very, very small. Even with current counter-electronic warfare suites in place on the aircraft, their survivability to target is small.

Against a less than technological equal it becomes much more likely.

Arms reduction is a completely different concept than dismantling two legs of the strategic nuclear triad. Nuclear subs are an important part obviously, but they are unable to command nuclear deference on their own.

What command and control functions are provided by having missiles in silos or missiles/bombs on long range bombers that are NOT present on SSBNs?  One possibility I suppose (and Geesie would have to tell me if this is true) is that SSBNs may be harder to contact if they aren't at a depth that allows for contact.  But that can't really be, because I doubt they would place a major portion of the nuclear arsenal outside of immediate contact...

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#23 2009-09-21 1:42 am

Steyr AUG
Agent Orange
From: 'Nam
Registered: 2001-08-24
Posts: 27547
Website

Re: Cutting the nuclear arsenal

KHannon wrote:

Steyr AUG wrote:

sturner wrote:

Possibility. An interesting word. It doesn't asses the probability of success.

The SSBN fleet is what changed the equation and led the Soviet and U.S. military to believe that they could accept nuclear arms reduction. The probability of aircraft penetrating to their targets in a high intensity environment is very, very small. Even with current counter-electronic warfare suites in place on the aircraft, their survivability to target is small.

Against a less than technological equal it becomes much more likely.

Arms reduction is a completely different concept than dismantling two legs of the strategic nuclear triad. Nuclear subs are an important part obviously, but they are unable to command nuclear deference on their own.

What command and control functions are provided by having missiles in silos or missiles/bombs on long range bombers that are NOT present on SSBNs?  One possibility I suppose (and Geesie would have to tell me if this is true) is that SSBNs may be harder to contact if they aren't at a depth that allows for contact.  But that can't really be, because I doubt they would place a major portion of the nuclear arsenal outside of immediate contact...

Redundant high speed data connections that are much more reliable and survivable (various communications techniques have notable weaknesses) than those used to communicate with submerged vessels. The navy has struggled for years to develop a system that allows highly reliable communications with submarines.

Last edited by Steyr AUG (2009-09-21 1:47 am)


Just like back in Saigon! Eh, slick?

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#24 2009-09-21 1:54 am

robco
Curmudgeon
From: Sodom
Registered: 2004-12-04
Posts: 7944
Website

Re: Cutting the nuclear arsenal

We need to move beyond what is the best at any cost and start looking at what will be sustainable for defense going forward. A triad of nuclear deterrence may be the ideal situation, but we need to really examine how likely a nuclear war really is and determine if it's worth the cost. Given our current situation, it doesn't appear so. The days of gravy being a beverage are past. Even the DoD is going to need to start living within its means. Cutting back on nukes is just a start. The Cold War is over, nobody won.


It is an odd thing, but every one who disappears is said to be seen at San Francisco. It must be a delightful city, and possess all the attractions of the next world.
- Oscar Wilde

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#25 2009-09-21 1:57 am

Steyr AUG
Agent Orange
From: 'Nam
Registered: 2001-08-24
Posts: 27547
Website

Re: Cutting the nuclear arsenal

robco wrote:

We need to move beyond what is the best at any cost and start looking at what will be sustainable for defense going forward. A triad of nuclear deterrence may be the ideal situation, but we need to really examine how likely a nuclear war really is and determine if it's worth the cost.

The triad system is what makes a nuclear war unlikely.


Just like back in Saigon! Eh, slick?

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