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#1 2009-10-16 10:03 am
- ShnickyShnack
- ::: title edited due to Satanic influences :::

- From: Rockin' out
- Registered: 2001-05-25
- Posts: 22237
If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
You know, I'm rather surprised about the way we talk about Afghanistan. It seems surprisingly non-partisan, unlike Iraq.
There seems to be broad consensus that the war is going pretty badly, that the Taliban are seriously gaining ground, and that unless something changes our efforts there are doomed.
So let's assume for a moment that our efforts there are doomed. That in one year or in five, we have to get out.
What happens then? It rapidly returns to the control of the Taliban, one assumes? Will the government be able to hold its own? Will there be a replay of the horrific warlord battles of the 90s?
And if the Taliban does take over again, does that mean al Qaeda end up in their previous position of having secure base camps from which to strike out at the West? And what about Pakistan, where the Taliban is also fighting against the government?
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#2 2009-10-16 10:13 am
- Ribtorus
- Member

- Registered: 2002-07-11
- Posts: 13735
Re: If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
If Afghanistan is "lost", then it probably means China gains even greater access to the region. And they, like us prior to the invasion, will deal with whatever Pashtun government is in place in order to ensure continued access.
when surrounded and left on Afghanistan's plains,
and the women come out to cut up what remains,
just roll to your rifle and blow out your brains,
and go to your god like a soldier...
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#3 2009-10-16 11:32 am
- radarman
- Member
- Registered: 2005-02-28
- Posts: 3584
Re: If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
From a purely terrorism point of view, it might even be advantageous to have the Chinese invade and occupy the region. They don't have the same moral issues we do, and would be perfectly willing to take the necessary steps to handle the situation. The Chinese could put enough troops in every village to ensure the Taliban don't control anything larger than an outhouse in the sticks.
However, it would also cause a tremendous amount of tension in the region, and make Russia nervous. I also don't believe that Afghanistan, unlike Tibet, has ever been claimed as part of the Chinese empire, so I'm not counting on it happening.
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#4 2009-10-16 2:47 pm
- ShnickyShnack
- ::: title edited due to Satanic influences :::

- From: Rockin' out
- Registered: 2001-05-25
- Posts: 22237
Re: If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
If firepower plus ruthlessness could win a guerrilla war, they'd be flying the stars 'n' stripes in Hanoi.
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#5 2009-10-16 2:57 pm
- radarman
- Member
- Registered: 2005-02-28
- Posts: 3584
Re: If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
ShnickyShnack wrote:
If firepower plus ruthlessness could win a guerrilla war, they'd be flying the stars 'n' stripes in Hanoi.
We didn't display the kind of ruthlessness the Chinese can muster with ease. Not even close. Even the Japanese out did us in the absolute brutality department in WWII.
We put too many constraints on the troops, in part to prevent these sorts of things.
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#6 2009-10-16 3:00 pm
- ShnickyShnack
- ::: title edited due to Satanic influences :::

- From: Rockin' out
- Registered: 2001-05-25
- Posts: 22237
Re: If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
radarman wrote:
ShnickyShnack wrote:
If firepower plus ruthlessness could win a guerrilla war, they'd be flying the stars 'n' stripes in Hanoi.
We didn't display the kind of ruthlessness the Chinese can muster with ease. Not even close. Even the Japanese out did us in the absolute brutality department in WWII.
We put too many constraints on the troops, in part to prevent these sorts of things.
Once again your pathetic grasp of history leaves me at once sickened and angered.
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#7 2009-10-16 3:07 pm
Re: If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
So, Soviet Russia couldn't win there, and America can't win there...
THE TALIBAN ARE TAKING OVER THE WORLD! 
Send Rambo to rescue anyone you really care about and get the hell out.
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#8 2009-10-16 3:28 pm
- sturner
- Royal High Poobah
- Moderator

- From: Carrollton, TX USA
- Registered: 2000-01-31
- Posts: 13767
Re: If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
The only reason the TAliban can make a go of it there, is they are indiginous. And they managed to provide some security and stability, and a lesser level of corruption.
I don't think they would be too happy to invite Al Queda back in. But you never know.
I'm not dead yet.
There are 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
"There are few things graven in stone, excepting your date of death."
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#9 2009-10-16 3:30 pm
- ShnickyShnack
- ::: title edited due to Satanic influences :::

- From: Rockin' out
- Registered: 2001-05-25
- Posts: 22237
Re: If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
sturner wrote:
The only reason the TAliban can make a go of it there, is they are indiginous. And they managed to provide some security and stability, and a lesser level of corruption.
I don't think they would be too happy to invite Al Queda back in. But you never know.
Personally I think Afghanistan is basically the main playing field for the Pakistani civil war.
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#10 2009-10-16 4:01 pm
- sturner
- Royal High Poobah
- Moderator

- From: Carrollton, TX USA
- Registered: 2000-01-31
- Posts: 13767
Re: If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
Afghanistan has NEVER had a strong central government. It is more a confederation.
I'm not dead yet.
There are 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
"There are few things graven in stone, excepting your date of death."
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#11 2009-10-16 4:17 pm
- radarman
- Member
- Registered: 2005-02-28
- Posts: 3584
Re: If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
ShnickyShnack wrote:
radarman wrote:
ShnickyShnack wrote:
If firepower plus ruthlessness could win a guerrilla war, they'd be flying the stars 'n' stripes in Hanoi.
We didn't display the kind of ruthlessness the Chinese can muster with ease. Not even close. Even the Japanese out did us in the absolute brutality department in WWII.
We put too many constraints on the troops, in part to prevent these sorts of things.Once again your pathetic grasp of history leaves me at once sickened and angered.
The US *MIGHT* have come close on a few occasions to the kind of crap the Chinese and Japanese have pulled, but we didn't routinely, or as a matter of policy, kidnap and enslave large numbers of Koreans or wipe out entire villages. That's not to say the US went in there like a bunch of Boy Scouts, but to compare the Korean war to wars fought by other regional powers is asinine.
Shoot, we didn't even get as nasty as the North Koreans, though this is somewhat understandable given the situation.
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#12 2009-10-16 4:25 pm
Re: If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
Are we forgetting Hiroshima and Nagasaki?
It is an odd thing, but every one who disappears is said to be seen at San Francisco. It must be a delightful city, and possess all the attractions of the next world.
- Oscar Wilde
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#13 2009-10-16 4:31 pm
- Pariah
- James Carville Fan..

- From: Belly Of The Beast, Oklahoma!
- Registered: 2001-05-24
- Posts: 18394
Re: If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
As controversial as it is at the moment I think the Italians were on to something in their little corner of the war.
"and it's not surprising that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."
Barack Obama
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#14 2009-10-16 4:39 pm
- ShnickyShnack
- ::: title edited due to Satanic influences :::

- From: Rockin' out
- Registered: 2001-05-25
- Posts: 22237
Re: If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
radarman wrote:
ShnickyShnack wrote:
radarman wrote:
We didn't display the kind of ruthlessness the Chinese can muster with ease. Not even close. Even the Japanese out did us in the absolute brutality department in WWII.
We put too many constraints on the troops, in part to prevent these sorts of things.Once again your pathetic grasp of history leaves me at once sickened and angered.
The US *MIGHT* have come close on a few occasions to the kind of crap the Chinese and Japanese have pulled, but we didn't routinely, or as a matter of policy, kidnap and enslave large numbers of Koreans or wipe out entire villages. That's not to say the US went in there like a bunch of Boy Scouts, but to compare the Korean war to wars fought by other regional powers is asinine.
Shoot, we didn't even get as nasty as the North Koreans, though this is somewhat understandable given the situation.
Ordinarily I'd bitch-slap you with the truth, but I grow weary of your ignorant confidence.
All I can suggest, as usual, is that you try educating yourself. I can provide a reading list if you like.
Last edited by ShnickyShnack (2009-10-16 4:39 pm)
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#15 2009-10-16 4:53 pm
- Pariah
- James Carville Fan..

- From: Belly Of The Beast, Oklahoma!
- Registered: 2001-05-24
- Posts: 18394
Re: If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
robco wrote:
Are we forgetting Hiroshima and Nagasaki?
Or Dresden.
WWII was a brutal ugly war and all sides committed horrible atrocities. Honestly, from what I have read what the Japs did in China makes the A-bomb seem positively civilized.
Last edited by Pariah (2009-10-16 4:57 pm)
"and it's not surprising that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."
Barack Obama
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#16 2009-10-16 4:54 pm
- ShnickyShnack
- ::: title edited due to Satanic influences :::

- From: Rockin' out
- Registered: 2001-05-25
- Posts: 22237
Re: If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
Pariah wrote:
robco wrote:
Are we forgetting Hiroshima and Nagasaki?
Or Dresden.
Or My Lai.
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#17 2009-10-16 4:59 pm
- Pariah
- James Carville Fan..

- From: Belly Of The Beast, Oklahoma!
- Registered: 2001-05-24
- Posts: 18394
Re: If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
ShnickyShnack wrote:
Pariah wrote:
robco wrote:
Are we forgetting Hiroshima and Nagasaki?
Or Dresden.
Or My Lai.
Not to diminish an ugly incident but My Lia was not "according to policy" is you get my meaning.
Caley was freelancing as it were.
"and it's not surprising that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."
Barack Obama
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#18 2009-10-16 5:01 pm
- JakeTheTall
- Cargo Cultist

- From: In Permanent Opposition
- Registered: 2003-03-13
- Posts: 9587
Re: If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
Pariah wrote:
robco wrote:
Are we forgetting Hiroshima and Nagasaki?
Or Dresden.
WWII was a brutal ugly war and all sides committed horrible atrocities. Honestly, from what I have read what the Japs did in China makes the A-bomb seem positively civilized.
My understanding is that every Japanese city of decent size was firebombed by American bombers.
I don't think it matters who started the fight or in what matter civilians were killed, its all immoral.
Jesus said to the servants, "Fill the jars with water"; so they filled them to the brim. Then he told them, "Now draw some out and take it to the master of the banquet." They did so, and the master of the banquet tasted the water that had been turned into wine. He did not realize where it had come from, though the servants who had drawn the water knew.
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#19 2009-10-16 5:38 pm
- ShnickyShnack
- ::: title edited due to Satanic influences :::

- From: Rockin' out
- Registered: 2001-05-25
- Posts: 22237
Re: If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
Pariah wrote:
ShnickyShnack wrote:
Pariah wrote:
Or Dresden.Or My Lai.
Not to diminish an ugly incident but My Lia was not "according to policy" is you get my meaning.
Caley was freelancing as it were.
Well, a captain basically told them that anyone in the village was a VC who should be killed, but in reality the only thing that makes My Lai different is the fact that it was concentrated. Normally the killing was wholesale rather than retail.
Four million civilians died in the war. Four million. In comparison that's well over a million more than the total number of Japanese casualties in the Second World War, civilian and military, including firebombings and atomic bombings.
Four million. And that's just the civilians. At least a million Vietnamese soldiers were killed too.
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#20 2009-10-16 5:43 pm
- Tallgeese
- Sternly Advising
- From: Pool Party
- Registered: 2000-10-17
- Posts: 34006
Re: If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
Well then guess who they shouldn't have messed with?
Texas. That's who.
I still believe in liberalism today as much as I ever did, but, oh, there was a happy time when I believed in liberals.
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#21 2009-10-16 6:54 pm
- radarman
- Member
- Registered: 2005-02-28
- Posts: 3584
Re: If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
robco wrote:
Are we forgetting Hiroshima and Nagasaki?
While horrific, those were hardly brutal, savage attacks. Most died almost instantly in the initial blasts, the rest in the next week from radiation poisoning. Not a pleasant way to go, but a lot better than dying of starvation in a prison camp. Along the way, though; we nuked a couple of fairly major military targets, and brought about the surrender of Japan early - which probably prevented millions more from dying.
While tragic, those cities devastation worked to prevent an even worse devastation.
Dresden, I could buy. Firebombing a city is a pretty brutal, violent act. From what I've read, it was a bit like waking up in hell. However, this was one city, over two days. The Germans bombed many cities, over years. We could talk about the bombing of Coventry, or any number of other cities.
Thus, I'm still not convinced that the US is any worse, or even close, to the regimes original mentioned. If someone would like to point to some well-documented sources that claim otherwise, I'm all ears.
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#22 2009-10-16 7:40 pm
- sturner
- Royal High Poobah
- Moderator

- From: Carrollton, TX USA
- Registered: 2000-01-31
- Posts: 13767
Re: If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
Well, there were the Indian Wars.
I'm not dead yet.
There are 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
"There are few things graven in stone, excepting your date of death."
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#23 2009-10-16 9:14 pm
Re: If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
Killing massive amounts of civilians is still killing them. It was a war and there were no gentlemen. Each side did things that were unspeakable. I think the Gerrys won the prize for most brutal however. In any case, it's not behavior that should be condoned in any way. It's not OK when the IDF does it to Palestinians. It wasn't OK when US troops did it to Native Americans. It's not OK in Darfur.
That being said, the US (nor NATO) is not the world's police force. If our initial mission in Afghanistan has been completed, then it's time to withdraw. Nation building is not our job - we're horrible at it. What happens in Afghanistan or Iraq, though may be unpleasant, isn't our concern. We've done what we can to give them a better government, it's up to them to keep it. But democracy cannot be imposed. If the people simply aren't ready, if it's incompatible with their culture, then let another government take control. If we wait for them to be ready, we'll be there an awfully long time and we can't afford that.
I do with the administration had the guts to wind down the military campaign at the same time ratcheting up our intelligence campaign. Organizations like AQ cannot be taken down through military might. I think our best long-term strategy is for the US to mind our own business. We have enough domestic concerns and we don't need to put our $0.02 in on every world problem. The era of American dominance is over. It's time for us to exit the stage.
It is an odd thing, but every one who disappears is said to be seen at San Francisco. It must be a delightful city, and possess all the attractions of the next world.
- Oscar Wilde
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#24 2009-10-16 11:01 pm
- radarman
- Member
- Registered: 2005-02-28
- Posts: 3584
Re: If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
sturner wrote:
Well, there were the Indian Wars.
Yeah, I forgot about those. Sending small-pox infected blankets in winter was a pretty sick thing to do. The forced marches and reservations were pretty sucky as well.
So, I'll grant that the US military was pretty brutal and thuggish with the native populations. However, the native populations weren't exactly all rose petals and satin with the early settlers either. How many settlers had their scalps hanging from some Indian's home? (or whose remains can still be found out on the plains with an axe in their back.) It is arguable that the war with the native populations might not have been won in our favor had we not been brutal and thuggish. The point is made, however.
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#25 2009-10-16 11:20 pm
- Warin
- Maple Leaf Wag

- From: Canada
- Registered: 2003-09-21
- Posts: 2431
Re: If Afghanistan is lost, then ...
radarman wrote:
sturner wrote:
Well, there were the Indian Wars.
Yeah, I forgot about those. Sending small-pox infected blankets in winter was a pretty sick thing to do. The forced marches and reservations were pretty sucky as well.
So, I'll grant that the US military was pretty brutal and thuggish with the native populations. However, the native populations weren't exactly all rose petals and satin with the early settlers either. How many settlers had their scalps hanging from some Indian's home? (or whose remains can still be found out on the plains with an axe in their back.) It is arguable that the war with the native populations might not have been won in our favor had we not been brutal and thuggish. The point is made, however.
Are you delusional? The first nations peoples didnt have a hope in hell of winning any conflict with European settlers. I suspect that for every scalping or "axe in the back" we can find many more deaths due to smallpox and forced migration.
From what I can tell, either way, you're screwed. Bad people are punished by society's laws, and good people are punished by Murphy's Law.
-- George, Dead Like Me
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