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#26 2003-02-12 1:12 pm

ShnickyShnack
::: title edited due to Satanic influences :::
From: Rockin' out
Registered: 2001-05-25
Posts: 22237

Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"

I coulda sworn "trickle-down" was tried once or twice before, and resulted in high interest rates, high unemployment and massive deficits.


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#27 2003-02-12 1:39 pm

macul
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From: Jacksonville, Florida, U.S.A.
Registered: 2001-09-19
Posts: 1910

Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"

I kinda quit paying attention to Nobel prizes when Arafat was awarded a peace prize.

But Kissinger was A-Okay?  Geez.

Logical fallacy.  I never said Kissinger was OK, but feel free to continue making assumptions.


If you think health care is expensive now, wait until you see what it costs when it's free.
--P.J. O'Rourke

A liberal is someone who feels a great debt to his fellow man, which debt he proposes to pay off with your money.
--G. Gordon Liddy

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#28 2003-02-12 1:57 pm

registered_user
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Registered: 2000-12-19
Posts: 16026
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Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"

I coulda sworn "trickle-down" was tried once or twice before, and resulted in high interest rates, high unemployment and massive deficits.

How do you figure?  You don't honestly believe that new economic policies have immediate impact on the economy, do you?  eg we are just now beginning to see the affects of increased trade with China in the US, and Clinton put those policies in order years ago.

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#29 2003-02-12 2:23 pm

Sternum
Slathered in barbecue sauce
From: Ribcage
Registered: 2002-01-10
Posts: 3349

Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"

I coulda sworn "trickle-down" was tried once or twice before, and resulted in high interest rates, high unemployment and massive deficits.

How do you figure?  You don't honestly believe that new economic policies have immediate impact on the economy, do you?  eg we are just now beginning to see the affects of increased trade with China in the US, and Clinton put those policies in order years ago.

Wow. You seem to have forgotten the late eighties, early nineties, when Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush's "trickle-down" economic policies resulted in a nation-wide recession, rampant inflation, and huge government deficits. It's a pity we don't learn from our mistakes.

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#30 2003-02-12 2:28 pm

registered_user
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Registered: 2000-12-19
Posts: 16026
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Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"

I coulda sworn "trickle-down" was tried once or twice before, and resulted in high interest rates, high unemployment and massive deficits.

How do you figure?  You don't honestly believe that new economic policies have immediate impact on the economy, do you?  eg we are just now beginning to see the affects of increased trade with China in the US, and Clinton put those policies in order years ago.

Wow. You seem to have forgotten the late eighties, early nineties, when Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush's "trickle-down" economic policies resulted in a nation-wide recession, rampant inflation, and huge government deficits. It's a pity we don't learn from our mistakes.

Wow.  And you think that just because Clinton got elected it all just instantly got better?  What exactly did this magic President do to heal the economic ailments that you describe?

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#31 2003-02-12 2:30 pm

ShnickyShnack
::: title edited due to Satanic influences :::
From: Rockin' out
Registered: 2001-05-25
Posts: 22237

Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"


Wow.  And you think that just because Clinton got elected it all just instantly got better?  What exactly did this magic President do to heal the economic ailments that you describe?

Balanced the budget, for one ...


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#32 2003-02-12 2:39 pm

Sternum
Slathered in barbecue sauce
From: Ribcage
Registered: 2002-01-10
Posts: 3349

Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"

Wow.  And you think that just because Clinton got elected it all just instantly got better?  What exactly did this magic President do to heal the economic ailments that you describe?

In addition to balancing the budget, he also inherited the post-war boom from our first conflict in Iraq, which gave the economy a healthy shot in the arm.* Perhaps G. W. Bush is factoring his grudge match with Saddam into his economic plan, but I certainly hope not.

The point being that historically, "trickle-down" economics doesn't work. If you want a tree to grow, you water the roots, not the leaves.


* - Watch... the thread will self-destruct into yet another Iraq tangent.

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#33 2003-02-12 2:41 pm

registered_user
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Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"

Well, Iraq's WMD.... oh wait.

He "balanced the budget" eh?  Don't you think that's a little vague?  I agree that the post War stimulus certainly was a boon, as was the drastically over inflated value of tech stocks, but seriously, what did Clinton do to help the economy?

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#34 2003-02-12 2:41 pm

freecat
Not funny online
From: West of the East Coast
Registered: 1999-04-04
Posts: 5765
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Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"

Wow. You seem to have forgotten the late eighties, early nineties, when Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush's "trickle-down" economic policies resulted in a nation-wide recession, rampant inflation, and huge government deficits. It's a pity we don't learn from our mistakes.

Nation-wide recession?  The one that lasted just over one year?    Rampant inflation?  What???  The only thing you're right about is the deficits, and you have yet to explain why deficits are bad. It's also a matter of debate as to whether tax cuts cause deficits, when it is the COMBINATION of high spending and lower tax revenues that leads to higher deficits.  Then there's the point that a lower rate of taxation can actually INCREASE tax revenues, thereby reducing deficits.

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#35 2003-02-12 2:43 pm

hillbilly
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From: wiping my ass with a French fl
Registered: 2002-03-19
Posts: 801

Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"

Then there's the point that a lower rate of taxation can actually INCREASE tax revenues, thereby reducing deficits.

Can?  It did increase revenues.


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#36 2003-02-12 2:45 pm

freecat
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From: West of the East Coast
Registered: 1999-04-04
Posts: 5765
Website

Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"

Well, Iraq's WMD.... oh wait.

He "balanced the budget" eh?  Don't you think that's a little vague?  I agree that the post War stimulus certainly was a boon, as was the drastically over inflated value of tech stocks, but seriously, what did Clinton do to help the economy?

I reject the notion that war is a stimulus.  Second, Clinton did, to some degree, promote freer trade.  Other than that, he did very little, which is good.  Economies don't need stimuli and new federal programs to grow.  If the institutions allow it, they just grow.

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#37 2003-02-12 2:51 pm

freecat
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From: West of the East Coast
Registered: 1999-04-04
Posts: 5765
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Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"

Then there's the point that a lower rate of taxation can actually INCREASE tax revenues, thereby reducing deficits.

Can?  It did increase revenues.

It can.  Whether it does or not is an optimization problem ex ante and an empirical question ex post.  I'm not sure what period you're talking about, but there is data from the 80s and 90s that suggests that this can happen.  Deficits can still grow, though, if increases in government spending outpace increases in revenue (whatever the reason for the increased revenue).

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#38 2003-02-12 2:56 pm

so
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Registered: 2002-12-10
Posts: 906

Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"

what did Clinton do to help the economy?

First, I must ask, what economy are you asking about? OPEC's? The Military-Industrial Complex's? Seriously what economy?


buy or die

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#39 2003-02-12 2:57 pm

freecat
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From: West of the East Coast
Registered: 1999-04-04
Posts: 5765
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Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"

If you want a tree to grow, you water the roots, not the leaves.

That's pretty stupid. The sun shines on the leaves, not on the roots.  The fact is that both play a vital role in the survival and growth of the tree.

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#40 2003-02-12 3:15 pm

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Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"

Second, Clinton did, to some degree, promote freer trade.  Other than that, he did very little, which is good.  Economies don't need stimuli and new federal programs to grow.  If the institutions allow it, they just grow.

While I tend to agree, I do have a question for you.  How do you feel that freeing up trade with China will affect the US economy?  Given the different natures of the 2 countries, wont this freeing up of trade ultimately bleed money from the US to China and depress the US economy?

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#41 2003-02-12 3:19 pm

tievsky2
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From: Chicago
Registered: 2001-10-22
Posts: 2496

Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"

Sternum: If you want a tree to grow, you water the roots, not the leaves.


I'll also add that the very analogy itself is misleading.  Everyone in an economy is "the roots."  Rich people aren't simply feeding off of what the poor suck up from the soil.  That entirely ignores both that the rich transfer money others both through purchases and other means, like savings and investments.  That's why the tired talk about needing to give money to those who'll go out and spend it is faulty.  The rich don't stuff their money under mattresses (though, even if they did, at least the deflationary effect would raise the value of everyone else's money).  Their money helps people even if they don't spend it on consumer goods.

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#42 2003-02-12 3:22 pm

tievsky2
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From: Chicago
Registered: 2001-10-22
Posts: 2496

Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"

wont this freeing up of trade ultimately bleed money from the US to China and depress the US economy?

That assumes that a trade deficit is an economic problem.  If that were so, I suppose it'd follow that banning imports would be an economic good, or that the fact that you maintain a "trade deficit" with respect to your local grocery store (i.e., your money flows to it, but its money doesn't flow to you) poses a problem.  Neither are true, of course. 

The fear of trade deficits is a holdover from the old and obsolete mercantilist theories of economics, which hold that the objective of international trade is to hoard as much money as is possible in your own nation.  But that assumes that money is somehow the absolute form of wealth.  In fact, it's merely one type of wealth.  Consumer goods are another.

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#43 2003-02-12 3:30 pm

freecat
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From: West of the East Coast
Registered: 1999-04-04
Posts: 5765
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Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"

How do you feel that freeing up trade with China will affect the US economy?

More rapid growth than otherwise.

Given the different natures of the 2 countries, wont this freeing up of trade ultimately bleed money from the US to China and depress the US economy?

Nope. China has a lot of cheap labor. Cheap labor is also low-productivity labor.  The US economy will continue to shift away from a manufacturing base to a service and tech base, just as it shifted away from an agricultural base more than a century ago. 

One of the most basic concepts behind any theory of economic growth is comparative advantage and how it leads to gains from trade through specialization.  People in different parts of the world are continually losing comparative advantage in one industry and gaining it in another.  They find new ways to specialize that were before unimaginable.  Though the possibilities for productive specialization must mathematically converge on a finite number, for all practical purposes those possibilities are infinite.

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#44 2003-02-12 3:35 pm

registered_user
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Posts: 16026
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Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"

wont this freeing up of trade ultimately bleed money from the US to China and depress the US economy?

That assumes that a trade deficit is an economic problem.  If that were so, I suppose it'd follow that banning imports would be an economic good, or that the fact that you maintain a "trade deficit" with respect to your local grocery store (i.e., your money flows to it, but its money doesn't flow to you) poses a problem.  Neither are true, of course. 

The fear of trade deficits is a holdover from the old and obsolete mercantilist theories of economics, which hold that the objective of international trade is to hoard as much money as is possible in your own nation.  But that assumes that money is somehow the absolute form of wealth.  In fact, it's merely one type of wealth.  Consumer goods are another.

I understand that, in theory.  I just don't see how it can work.  As we buy more Chinese goods, won't the US ultimately just end up with a lot of crappy, used, broken consumer goods?  All the while filling the Chinese economy with wealth to do whatever they want with?

edit:  I didn't see freecat's reply.  It made some sense to me.  It's still a little abstract, but it's a little more solid to me. Thanks.

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#45 2003-02-12 4:04 pm

tievsky2
Member
From: Chicago
Registered: 2001-10-22
Posts: 2496

Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"

As we buy more Chinese goods, won't the US ultimately just end up with a lot of crappy, used, broken consumer goods?

You mean, because Chinese goods tend to be "crappy, used, and broken"?  But if that were so, why would we buy Chinese goods?  Why would U.S. manufacturing move there?  Only if the drop in quality could be compensated for by the drop in cost, in which case it would be worthwhile...Nor do I understand why you're assuming Chinese goods will be lower quality.  Manufacturing toys, I think, is not a complex service that you need a well-developed economy to accomplish.

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#46 2003-02-12 4:07 pm

so
Member
Registered: 2002-12-10
Posts: 906

Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"

in which case it would be worthwhile

To/for whom? I mean do you literally find that people are only for and only want "cheap" - "cheap" at any cost?


buy or die

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#47 2003-02-12 4:08 pm

Cyberpawz
Member
Registered: 2001-11-14
Posts: 10172

Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"

CRAP! I did it for $10K oops. blush

I was wondering how that happened.  smile  I know that $20K doesn't give up 50% even with state, fed, social security and medicare taxes combined!

no they give %34

Cyberpawz


Governing sense, mind and intellect, intent of liberation, free from desire, fear and anger, the sage is forever free.

Bhagavad Gita (c.B.C. 400)

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#48 2003-02-12 5:11 pm

Steyr AUG
Agent Orange
From: 'Nam
Registered: 2001-08-24
Posts: 27546
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Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"

Whoopdy frik'n doo. A nobel prize has about as much credibility as a grammy award. The nobel prize is awarded on the basis of politics, with no merit with respect to scientific research.

That may very well be true, but read the first line again, here it is for your convinience:
"More than 400 economists, led by 10 Nobel prize winners,"

here's a clue, take away: "led by 10 Nobel prize winners", and whaddya get left with?

cos, you know, that's what struck me about the piece.

And how many economists are there in the world? Its like saying 400 walmart customers dont like their policies. Wow, big deal roll


Just like back in Saigon! Eh, slick?

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#49 2003-02-12 5:57 pm

Galahad
Member
From: Claremont, CA
Registered: 2000-12-31
Posts: 1350
Website

Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"


And how many economists are there in the world? Its like saying 400 walmart customers dont like their policies. Wow, big deal roll

There are 24 living Nobel prize winners in Economics for the United States.  So you have almost half of the Nobel Prize winners in the nation actively opposing it (no, that doesn't mean that the other half support it, simply that they're not actively opposing it).  You certanly don't have to win a nobel prize to be a worthy economist; Alan Greenspan (who also opposes the tax plan) has not won one, and you'd be hard pressed to argue that he's not distinguished.  Face it: Everyone who knows anything about economics opposes this plan.

The people who are talking about Clinton and his economic policies are showing their true motives: they support the plan because and only for political motives.  Clinton has nothing to do with this plan; talking about him or any other president only proves your bias.

We can all agree that what we need right now is a jump start for the economy.  This plan does nothing of the kind.  Giving money to the rich will not help the economy in any way: they simply will not spend it.  You can argue until you're blue in the face that they deserve more because they pay more, but the fact remains that giving them money is contrary to the goal of improving the economy.  You could also argue that giving money to the rich will make business grow faster.  Even if that is true, the growth will be in the long term, and that growth will be more than wiped out by the harm done by the huge deficit in Bush's plan.

It is impossible to refute this fact: Bush's plan is not intended to help the economy, it's intended to make the rich richer.

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#50 2003-02-12 6:00 pm

Tallgeese
Sternly Advising
From: Pool Party
Registered: 2000-10-17
Posts: 34096

Re: Nobel Prize Economists: "Bush's plan is madness!"

I kinda quit paying attention to Nobel prizes when Arafat was awarded a peace prize.

But Kissinger was A-Okay?  Geez.

Logical fallacy.  I never said Kissinger was OK, but feel free to continue making assumptions.

You claimed you stopped paying attention to the Nobel prizes when Arafat was awarded. This means that you did pay attention before he was awarded the prize, at a time when Kissinger had been awarded the prize.  Kissinger's prize did not make you lose faith in the prize, while Arafat's did.
Oh, and stop trying to be clever. Just call me names if you want to, instead of little boldface crap.


I still believe in liberalism today as much as I ever did, but, oh, there was a happy time when I believed in liberals.

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