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If any more "military targets" are blown up Lebanon is going to be set back decades.  Israel will continue to attack in an effort to make the Lebanese government reign in Hizbollah.  Of course, there is no way that Lebanon is capable of doing such a thing.  This all seems familiar....

Well, whatever they do I hope they hurry up and do it.  I'm tired of this dragging on endlessly for decades.  Dreadfully boring.

I think that there is a difference between incapable and unwilling to try. It doesn't seem that Lebanon has put much effort into the issue.

So I'm just wondering what is the politically correct EU and UN sanctioned response to this sort of thing.  It's not as if Hezbollah isn't fighting back and launching rockets into Israel.  It's not just the Lebanese gubment that can't rein in the militants, the Palestinian Authority didn't exactly do a great job of it either - and Hamas is unwilling to even try.

It's a tough spot for Israel.  If they negotiate, that makes kidnapping a tactic that will get results - kinda like making the mistake of recognizing the PLO in the first place, that legitimized terrorism.

I wonder if Hezbollah and Hamas had access to better weaponry, would they use restraint?  Playing the game by Western rules doesn't really work too well when the other side despises Western values.

resedit wrote:

[Tycho?] wrote:

I already heard some spokesman or pundit say the captured soldiers were being taken to Syria and Iran.

I haven't heard that, but what if they are?
We know Syria is funding Hezbollah - that's not secret.
Also, afaik Israel and Syria and technically still at war - even though I think there was a cease fire negotiated (when Israel came within 20 miles of Damascus or something).

Well if it is true it may mean war. It may also mean war if its not true. I would be inclined to not believe it though. Israel is blowing up roads and stuff ostensibly to prevent this kind of movement. Regardless, they will be watching the borders like a hawk. There is no real benifit to moving them, they seem to be doing a fine job of keeping their whereabouts a secret, moving across a border only adds risk.

And interestingly Iran has said it will take an attack on Syria as an attack on itself. Good old escalation.

Fried Chicken wrote:

Oh, and by the way, all these people are Christians.  Not Muslims...

I assume that you wrote this because Lebanese muslims deserve to be bombed? When it comes to Lebanon, I'm afraid my gut reaction is to side against groups identifing as christian. Something to do with the Fascist Maronite Phalangsists oppressing the rest of the population (e.g. 6:5/Christian:Muslim ratio in parliament (>50% population was Muslim after 1960) and a requirement that the President was Christian preventing this from ever changing) and causing the 15-year smurf up. So I'm kinda confused why you felt it was required to point out that they were christian.

The shutdown of Lebanese ports and Beirut airport seems like an actual attempt to force another civil war on what has become a relatively stable and free democracy. But I don't see what anyone can do about Hezbollah either...

Fried Chicken wrote:

I smurfing hate israel.

So let's put together what you've told us over time.
You're half Lebanese / half German, hate Israel and spend most of your time blowing things up.

Apparently (unconfirmed) President Bush is going to pressure Israel to stop the attacks on Lebanon.

Syria is funding Hezbollah and possibly arming them (I don't know, anybody here know?).
President Bush does not like Syria.
Are we going to see a full out invasion of Syria by Israel in the next few weeks?

It'd be something if India took the same approach as Israel with with Pakistan over the sheltering of Kashmiri terrorists. 

Israel may get no more than a 'tut-tut' from Bush for attacking a neighbouring democracy.  A nation so recently celebrated by Bush apologists as an example of the flowering of democracy in the mid east; casting aside their Syrian overlords and all.  It's not like Lebanon wasn't a democracy before Bush came along, but that was the general slant of the message.

Perhaps even the Egyptian border area is next on Israel's list after Lebanon settles down to a dull roar.  I wonder how many small fronts they feel ready to open up. So many nations 'friendly' to the west to piss off, and so little time.

This is where that dreaded 'realism' rears its head.

Last edited by Ribtorus (2006-07-14 8:49 am)

The forces in Syria are much more competent than they were 10 years ago, very much more competent than they were 20 or 30 years ago. Israel would face an pretty even fight against the Syrians. Add in the rest of the Arab world, would Egypt remain on the sidelines or be forced in against Israel. The Egyptians are very compentent. They showed that to the Israelis last time.

We could get sucked into a Mideast war.

Lets look on the bright side.

We don't have a foriegn policy. This would remove the need for one.

We don't have a military on a war footing or large enough to prosecute a large scale conventional, potentially long-term conflict. We will have to build it on the fly.

Yep its a win-win situation.

sturner wrote:

The forces in Syria are much more competent than they were 10 years ago, very much more competent than they were 20 or 30 years ago. Israel would face an pretty even fight against the Syrians.

Would they really?
I don't know how much Syrians military capabilities have improved, but Israel hasn't exactly been sitting idle and allowing their military to decay.

Add in the rest of the Arab world, would Egypt remain on the sidelines or be forced in against Israel. The Egyptians are very compentent. They showed that to the Israelis last time.

They did?
I'm not sure Egypt would get involved. They get too much money in tourism from both Israel and the USA to kill that industry in order to get into a war that they don't have to get into. They are a lot more moderate than they use to be, and (like Jordon) are on somewhat friendly terms with Israel.

We could get sucked into a Mideast war.

Well, we already are in one - but yes, if Israel got into a full out war with Syria, I wouldn't be surprised if we got involved.

I'd say I didn't like Israel, but Lord knows it'll be construed that I'm saying I gave Hitler an EZ-Bake on Kristallnacht.

Subtle impolitic jokery aside, I don't really know what to think about these events. Troubling times.